December 2016 Trade Review

Summary:

1. short term price momentum remain short. It may just sustain to next day morning up to 10am.
2. take profit when I feel pleased.
3. fishhook setup worked well for low float and momentum stocks.
4. set stops at the low of the breakout bar. Do not move stop. Take small loss instead of large.
5. for good fundamental stocks such as AKAM, INCY, it is a dilemma whether taking small loss or set stop when losing 8%. Right now I feel it is still better taking small loss, since market is predictable. What if they broker 50MA and market tanked as in January 2016? So rather be protective.
6. buy high and sell higher! look for momentum stocks instead of small move


Winning trades:

Closed lose trade

Open positions:

additional position for HDSN, SWC, SGYP, IMGN.

Example and lesson from a range expansion from below set up

Below are 2 examples.

1. LXU: I noticed LXU this week, the entry can be around 9 dollar. Next day morning it went up sharply a little bit off previous high, end dived down. The upside momentum only hold around 1 hour next day as shown in the 5 minute charts. Lesson: take profit as long as you can.

2. HDSN: I actually traded HDSN. My entry is around 7.66 yesterday. Today HDSN went up to 8.45 in the first hour. That is around 10% gain overnight. It is the similar behavior as LXU. I did not take the quick profit and still hold it. Luckily HDSN hold the 8 dollar area. 

HDSN is a strong growth stock as I scanned it based on fidelity screener. I think this stock will continue going up in 2017. That is the reason I did not take the quick profit. Hopefully HDSN will do good next week.

EP, STIB and RSI power list for week 2016-12-26 to 2016-12-30

Weekly RSI >=65 and volume surge at least 50%

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ft=3&ta=0&t=CNAT%20FRED%20NAK%20HIIQ%20LIVE%20DRAM%20FRBK%20KEM%20OTIV%20CETX%20GV%20CDZI%20NVDA%20EMD%20PME%20HOFT%20CNAB%20LUKOY%20FFIN%20PIP%20SMI%20CFFN%20FRA%20HCAC


EP list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ft=3&ta=0&t=BAS,IDXG,CNAT,HIIQ,MPET,LIVE,CVI,CETX,CRC,NVDA,BCRX,PGNX,MU,CVRR,LXU,CO,WATT,PTLA,GLP,WMK,ITCI,TSLA,SGYP,CARA,CZR,WTW,FLXN,ALXN,SUN,KATE,AMZN,AGN,ZAGG,MBLY,AVXS,ONCE,AGI,ICPT,AG,TAHO,PVG,SLW,FSM,NLNK,MAG,SHLD,RIC,JUNO,AAAP,XBIT,GOL,ELGX


STIB list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ft=3&ta=0&t=BAS%20CNAT%20AKAO%20NVCN%20NAK%20HIIQ%20VBIO%20MPET%20LIVE%20DRAM%20GSAT%20IPI%20PES%20AMD%20CVI%20CETX%20GV%20CRC%20NVDA%20BCRX%20HOS%20FMSA%20PGNX%20MU%20LPG%20CDEV%20CVRR%20CRR%20VCEL%20CF%20IEP%20LXU%20WATT%20FBR%20HCLP%20SALT%20PRTK%20WMK%20CALM%20PTCT%20EXAR%20BSBR%20SMI%20MFS%20TSRO%20CRK%20CARA%20HDSN

CETX and CNAT example of fishhook setup

I closed my half position on CETX at 6.37. There is a clear wedge with volume decreasing, then gap up due to the earning release. This is a good growth stock. It did not fly on the earning day and went down to 5.25. At that time, I wondered if I was wrong and if I should close my position. I thought not and wanted to add some more position since I was pleased with the earning number. However, I did not add my position. Yesterday the stock went low again to test 5.3 area then flied during today's session. This is an example of SOS's fishhook setup on the 15/30/60 minutes charts. I wish to see this stock go up to 7 area tomorrow.

I think CETX has bring future. I will buy low and keep this stock in my long term long list in year 2017.

Another example is CNAT. It went up due to news on collaboration with Novartis. I bought at 4.4 and sold at 4.9 on the days of news. Then in the next 2 days, the stock pulled down for two days, then flied last Friday and today. This is another example to show the price momentum of fishhook setup. I did not trade the rebound. I regret missing the run. I should risk a small position here. I think the reason I did not buy is I wished to buy at a low price at 4. Next time, when having such set up in future, risk a small position, the rewards is tremendous. The stop is at the low.

there are some range expansion upside setup which is not reliable long setup. Most of them are rebound from some support area. The upside momentum is short. When reaching some area, the old buyer who trapped will sell.

Good setup I missed. CF and OTIV. The reason OTIV is a good setup is due to the volume surge on the breakout bar yesterday. Today OTIV has follow through today. It may go to the 1.8 area tomorrow. There should be some imagination.

I saw CF 3 trading session ago since it had a range expansion. Since the volume is not significant, I passed it. Last Friday and today are good days for CF.

List of IPO in year 2016

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=TRVG,TIG,WRD,ATH,ICHR,SNES,POLA,IIPR,GOLF,BL,QTNA,MYOV,ZTO,RARX,FRTA,IRTC,CRSP,TUSK,AZRE,XOG,AZRX,CWH,MRAM,ADSW,WAAS,COUP,OBLN,NTNX,FLGT,MRT,TRHC,ACIU,GSUM,CSTR,ELF,NOVN,TTD,EVBG,FBK,NBLX,AIRG,MEDP,PTGX,ATMR,GEMP,HOME,FHB,TLND,KNSL,TCMD,KDMN,TPIC,PI,PTHN,BOLD,APFH,LN,SYRS,TWLO,SELB,ATKR,COE,CLSD,NH,COTV,GMS,RETA,USFD,MSBI,SUPV,MRUS,PZRX,PLSE,ACIA,SITE,TPB,NTLA,SBPH,RRR,YIN,SCWX,ARA,MGP,BATS,AGLE,CRVS,SNDX,AVXS,PTI,BGNE,EDIT

EP and STIB list for week 2016-12-19 to 2016-12-23

Weekly List

Weekly RSI + Weekly Vol Change >50% List based on Stephen Steward's method

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=FRBK,HIIQ,CNAT,FRED,WTI,HOV,KEM,INVN,QUIK,MPET,GSAT,PES,HNR,ESSI,NVDA,BCRX,HEOP,NSR,TLYS,LOXO,ALIOY,CNOB,IL,MC,CDEV,EMD,OTIV,XXIA,CLVS,LOCK,CLC,IRDM,GBNK,CCXI,CETX,CLMS,AF,BEAT,FRP,SCHL,GBCI,PPBI,DIOD,SNC,WGO,TSEM,UNVR,AIMC,ATKR,AWH,BFCF,BRKS,MATW,SFNC,CBF,FSB,GLAD,UMBF,DCOM,ABCB,VASC,ICFI,PIP,APOL,OFC,SBSI,NWBI,ORA,FDX,TWI,EFR,FRA,CO,ACAS&ta=0&o=-marketcap


EP list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=HIIQ,FRED,INVN,MPET,CVI,BCRX,LOXO,STRP,ALIOY,IMMR,SGY,CLVS,PI,VSAR,CCXI,CETX,CLMS,ACRS,BEAT,CORE,MU,AWH,HBM,KOS,MNTX,EGLT,SUPN,WATT,AKBA,CRR,JBL,HCHC,CVRR,OCUL,CENX,RELY,TSLA,ULTA,GLP,BREW,ACAD,KNDI,CVGW,ALXN,CMG,SUN,NTES,HZNP,LONE,TWLO


STIB list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=XGTI,HIIQ,CNAT,FRED,WTI,BCEI,FMCC,FNMA,TDW,AKS,KEM,INVN,X,AMD,MPET,GSAT,PES,HNR,CVI,IONS,QHC,REN,BCRX,UIS,LOXO,CLF,VBIO,STRP,GATX,ALIOY,CONN,CUBI,GLF,IMMR,SGY,AMAG,LRN,CLVS,PI,VSAR,WEB,CCJ,NBR,IRDM,AGX,HDS,CCXI,CETX,CLMS,RATE,ACRS,BAK,BEAT,FBP,CORE,EDIT,EIGI,EVR,GTT,KMX,CYTK,MU,FMSA,SCS,TSEM,AWH,BFCF,IEP,TOWR,APOG,INN,MNTX,ETE,HZN,CF,EGLT,NCLH,NEOG,ARII,RAD,WATT,HCHC,CVRR,IRET,ATSG,CENX,BID,TX,ICON,ASTE,CARA,HDP,KEYW,WAC,BOOT


For trading day 2016-12-24 (Friday)

EP list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=AGN,PTLA,SGYP,WTW,JUNO,AVXS,CNAT,ONCE,FOLD,HIIQ,DPRX,FLXN,CARA,CZR,ACHN,NVCN,PGNX,NAK,NLNK,ARWR,ACST,ITCI,RFP,PZE,BCRX,AGEN,ECPCY,GV,CO,IMMY,OTIV,CANN,BIOA,QUIK,CNAB,ABWN,CLRB,APTO


STIB list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=NVCN%20HIIQ%20CNAT%20PES%20GV%20BCRX%20PGNX%20AQXP%20FLDM%20RVNC%20CYTK%20FMSA%20PTCT%20ZGNX%20AST%20XNCR%20GNCA%20HCLP%20TSRO%20CALM%20ACAN%20PRTK%20EBF%20CARA


Unusual Volume Mover list

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&o=-change&t=CNAT,FRED,BCEI,INVN,GSAT,PES,VBIO,ATRS,OTIV,LOCK,IRDM,HBHC,UNVR,BTUUQ,CAIXY,UBSI,CVRR,CALM,TMH,RYDAF,CTAS,ENPH,BBBY,TWI,WSM,SCMP,PGH,RFP,PTLA,INAP,HCAC,WTW,BBRY,CZR,GWR,RHT,SGYP,FINL,III,MIY,GNRT,SUN,PHYS,TTI,TKGBY,BABY,SGMO,CIOXY,TKAI,GPOR,SHLD,GNC,BITA,OVAS,ARWR,DPRX

price momentum learn from Stephen Stewart

http://stockcharts.com/public/1130973/tenpp/1

http://educsos.blogspot.com/2015/08/stewart-notes_2.html

It is called Map Syntax (MAPS), which had VIOLENT price action and optimizing it. If turned where, the momentum can last at least a few weeks. So one can be patient to hold the stock and swing trade it. Set stop at the low or middle of the breakout bar. For example.

Just Follow these 3 Rules:

1. Only Invest Above the Green Line. (250 day avg.)
2. Only Invest Above 90 Relative Strength Factor (Top 10% of All Investments).
3. The Money Wave should be < 20 and turning up (Buy in Green Zone, Sell in Red Zone).

Buy when they are coming out of the Green Zone, and take profits in the Red Zone.

It is based on weekly price momentum using weekly RSI. Besides looks for weekly RSI over 70, (which I used 65), I also require criteria: weekly volume change is at least 50% more than the moving average of 26 prior weeks. I implemented this in TD and found a lot of good examples.

Most of time, the first time a stock reach such criteria, the upside momentum is more powerful. Muathe called this first mountain setup.

 For example,

ACHN back to year 2014.

Certainly there are failures, for example PZE. It appeared a good long term breakout with volume and RSI muscle, however it failed and dived hard. So the money management is key for this strategy.

I implemented this.

for week of 2016-12-12, below is the list. We can see the performance. Most of this stocks continued trending up.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=cap_smallover,sh_avgvol_o50,sh_price_o5&t=AAN,ACAS,ACTA,ADTN,AEGN,AF,AIMC,AIT,AKAO,AKS,ALIOY,AMAG,AMBC,AMCC,ARCB,ARW,ASB,ATW,AXAS,AXS,AZPN,BAC,BAH,BANR,BCPC,BEL,BFCF,BGC,BHE,BHLB,BIO,BLK,BNCN,BNED,BPFH,BPOP,BRK/B,BRKL,BRKS,BXS,CACI,CBS,CBSH,CBU,CCMP,CDEV,CECO,CENTA,CFFN,CHE,CLC,CLH,CNOB,COHR,COLB,CPF,CPLA,CSFL,CTAS,CTS,CUBI,CVBF,DCOM,DIOD,DV,EFSC,EFT,EIG,EMKR,EOG,ERF,ESE,ESNT,ESSI,EXTN,EXTR,FBNC,FBP,FCB,FCF,FFBC,FFIN,FIBK,FMBI,FMCC,FNB,FNGN,FNMA,FRA,FRBK,FRC,FRME,FRP,FSB,FSIC,FULT,GATX,GBCI,GBNK,GEF,GFF,GLAD,GMS,GPRE,GS,GTY,H,HBHC,HEOP,HFWA,HI,HII,HLI,HLT,HMST,HOMB,HOV,HTH,HTLF,HUBB,HW,IBKC,IBOC,IBTX,ICFI,IDCC,IIVI,IL,INDB,INN,INVN,IOSP,IPHS,IPI,IRBT,IRDM,ITRI,JBHT,JBLU,JFR,JRO,KAMN,KBAL,KE,KEM,KFY,KLIC,KLXI,KNX,KOP,KRO,LBAI,LION,LIOX,LRN,LSTR,LTXB,LUKOY,MATW,MBFI,MC,MDU,MEI,MENT,MGI,MGLN,MHLD,MHO,MLI,MOD,MSA,MTB,MTL,MTRN,MTRX,MYRG,NANO,NBHC,NBTB,NCI,NDSN,NFBK,NMIH,NRE,NSIT,NSL,NSR,NTRS,NVDA,NWBI,OCFC,OGZPY,OKS,ONB,ORBK,ORN,OTTR,PB,PBCT,PEIX,PERY,PES,PFS,PGR,PIP,PIR,PJC,PLXS,PNFP,PPBI,PPR,PRA,PTEN,QUIK,RE,RGA,RMAX,ROLL,ROST,RP,RTEC,SAIA,SAIC,SBSI,SCHL,SFBS,SFNC,SIVB,SJI,SKYW,SLM,SNC,SPR,SPTN,STBA,STBZ,STI,STL,SWM,SXC,TCB,TCBI,TDY,TEX,TLRD,TLYS,TMST,TOWN,TRMK,TRS,TRST,TSC,TTEK,TWI,UAM,UBNK,UBSH,UCBI,UMBF,UMH,UNM,UNVR,USM,UVSP,UVV,VAC,VASC,VECO,VTA,VVI,WABC,WAFD,WCIC,WGO,WRK,WSBC,WTFC,WTI,WWD,XHR,XLNX,XXIA&ta=0&o=-change&r=241

For week of 2016-12-05

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=ABM,ACTA,ADSK,AEIS,AF,AGCO,AGII,AGO,AGX,AI,AIMC,AIN,AKS,ALIOY,AMBC,AMCC,AMD,APO,ARCB,ATKR,ATW,AXAS,AXE,BAC,BAH,BANR,BFCF,BGFV,BHLB,BIF,BOBE,BRKL,BTO,BWA,BZH,CBF,CBOE,CDEV,CECO,CFFN,CGNX,CHH,CKEC,CLC,CLF,CM,CNOB,COLB,CSFL,CTS,CUBI,CVI,DCI,DCOM,DFRG,DIS,DK,DV,EMKR,ENVA,EOG,ERI,ESSI,EXPD,FAST,FBNC,FBP,FCAU,FCB,FET,FF,FFIN,FIBK,FLO,FMBI,FMCC,FMSA,FNMA,FNSR,FRA,FRAN,FRBK,FRP,GATX,GEF,GFF,GMS,GS,GV,H,HEES,HI,HIIQ,HLT,HMST,HOV,HUBB,HW,HXL,IBKC,IBOC,IBTX,IIVI,IL,INDB,ING,INN,INVN,IOSP,IPI,ISCA,JEC,JFR,JRO,KBAL,KE,KEM,KKR,KLIC,KLXI,KMTUY,LBAI,LRN,LZB,MCFT,MEI,MGI,MGM,MHO,MITT,MOD,MRTN,MSGN,MT,MTSI,NAK,NBHC,NILE,NMIH,NTRS,NVCN,NXST,OCFC,ODP,OFG,ORIG,ORIT,ORN,PBCT,PCAR,PDS,PERY,PES,PFS,PFSI,PIP,PJT,PLAY,PRA,PVTB,PZZA,RHP,RRTS,RVT,S,SAIC,SBCF,SBSI,SCGLY,SCHL,SCMP,SFBS,SFNC,SLM,SMG,SNC,STAR,STAY,STBZ,SWC,TCB,TCS,TER,TICC,TIME,TLRD,TLYS,TRNO,TRST,TSC,TSEM,TTC,UCBI,UMBF,UNVR,UVSP,VASC,VLY,VVR,WAC,WLB,WSBC,XLNX,XXIA,YRCW&ta=0&o=-change