http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?nl_id=267
http://goldstockprophet.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-to-trade-stocks-without-predicting.html
http://goldstockprophet.blogspot.com/2008/07/trend-following-using-renko-charts.html
Monday, October 31, 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Year 1 trading self-reflection Part I
I am going to write a series about my one year trading activity and learning curve. I think it should be very beneficial for me to reflect on my personal weakness and try to improve.
I opened my first trading account on November 2009. But I started serious trading only from October 2010, which is one year ago. During this one year period, I spent a lot of time and effort trying to learn as much trading knowledge as I could. Even though I am losing a lot in my trading account which is the tuition I pay for, I feel I gradually improve and start to form my own trading philosophy and method. With probably another five years continuing learning and trading, I should be good.
I opened my first trading account on November 2009. But I started serious trading only from October 2010, which is one year ago. During this one year period, I spent a lot of time and effort trying to learn as much trading knowledge as I could. Even though I am losing a lot in my trading account which is the tuition I pay for, I feel I gradually improve and start to form my own trading philosophy and method. With probably another five years continuing learning and trading, I should be good.
Friday, October 28, 2011
a version of QE3 from Europe
A huge up day with around 1680 stocks with 4 percent plus day. It is considered to be a big accumulation day. Thanks to the Europe to give a new version of QE3.
How the market will behave in the next few days? sideway move or test 1260-1270 for support to see if it finds buyer again.
How the market will behave in the next few days? sideway move or test 1260-1270 for support to see if it finds buyer again.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
first vertical spread traded today
Today, I have traded my first transaction for a bull spread. I used to do long call or put and short naked put, which are more risky instrument. My biggest down trade so far is a naked spy long call. I am starting to learn the option trading strategies and put into practice. I bought 2 SPY Nov 117/127 call spread for 6.57 today.
At current stage, I do not suspect the up momentum of US market, even though SPX sell off ugly to 1221 at 11AM. When SPX retest 1225 around 1pm, I feel very frustrated and desperate, asking myself what the hell the market is doing. No dip buyer? going to test 1200? I closed my brower and my cellphone, not want to care about what the fuzzy market was going to do. Luckily market had an unbelievable afternoon bounce. I do not think TA can predict this well. It is a day trading heaven. If I have enough capital to overcome the day trading restriction, I think I will be aggresive to trade this environment.
Tomorrow, the primary indicator should turn to positive, which is the first time since July 22nd. How long it will remain positive is a question. Last time it remained positive for two weeks with gradually distribution, then market sold off hard.
My take for the market is that we are going to continue going up for the rest of the week to touch 200MA (1260 zone). Then next week the market will be in a narrow zone for distribution. After that, the market will see a sharp sell off to test 1200-1220 zone again. It will become a critical time for the market after the selloff. If the market find the buyer again, we will overcome 200MA to have a year end rally. Otherwise, I feel another phase of bear sell-off period will come again.
I really hope the market will choose the first option instead of sell off.
At current stage, I do not suspect the up momentum of US market, even though SPX sell off ugly to 1221 at 11AM. When SPX retest 1225 around 1pm, I feel very frustrated and desperate, asking myself what the hell the market is doing. No dip buyer? going to test 1200? I closed my brower and my cellphone, not want to care about what the fuzzy market was going to do. Luckily market had an unbelievable afternoon bounce. I do not think TA can predict this well. It is a day trading heaven. If I have enough capital to overcome the day trading restriction, I think I will be aggresive to trade this environment.
Tomorrow, the primary indicator should turn to positive, which is the first time since July 22nd. How long it will remain positive is a question. Last time it remained positive for two weeks with gradually distribution, then market sold off hard.
My take for the market is that we are going to continue going up for the rest of the week to touch 200MA (1260 zone). Then next week the market will be in a narrow zone for distribution. After that, the market will see a sharp sell off to test 1200-1220 zone again. It will become a critical time for the market after the selloff. If the market find the buyer again, we will overcome 200MA to have a year end rally. Otherwise, I feel another phase of bear sell-off period will come again.
I really hope the market will choose the first option instead of sell off.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
2 percent down day
From the TA point of view, why today is a big down day?
1. the EURO $XEU closed at 200EMA yesterday as a resistance. These days $XEU and $DAX are two primary indicator for the US equity. Euro news always create dramas.
2. $COMP closed a little above 200EMA yesterday. Usually the first touch is a fail.
3. the semiconductor $SOX closed right below 200EMA yesterday as a resistance.
4. $TNX 22.64 level act as a wall, which is 65EMA resistance. Yesterday $TNX looks like it was going to break out. But eventually had a 4.74 percent plunge down.
5. 13EMA of $NYAD closed at 800 yesterday, which is way too high. Last time it was at this level was on early July. The market had a five day down trend then.
Given the accumulation in the passed 15 days rally, I believe this rally still have a more leg up or retest Monday's high at least. The timing model is still in bullish teritory from Oct 7th, there is no need to adjust until the model gives sell signal.
1. the EURO $XEU closed at 200EMA yesterday as a resistance. These days $XEU and $DAX are two primary indicator for the US equity. Euro news always create dramas.
2. $COMP closed a little above 200EMA yesterday. Usually the first touch is a fail.
3. the semiconductor $SOX closed right below 200EMA yesterday as a resistance.
4. $TNX 22.64 level act as a wall, which is 65EMA resistance. Yesterday $TNX looks like it was going to break out. But eventually had a 4.74 percent plunge down.
5. 13EMA of $NYAD closed at 800 yesterday, which is way too high. Last time it was at this level was on early July. The market had a five day down trend then.
Given the accumulation in the passed 15 days rally, I believe this rally still have a more leg up or retest Monday's high at least. The timing model is still in bullish teritory from Oct 7th, there is no need to adjust until the model gives sell signal.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Market Breadth Pattern Analysis from Timelysetup
http://timelysetup.wordpress.com/market-analysis/market-breadth-pattern-guide
A more detailed explannation of the market breadth pattern from Timelysetup. Really good to read.
A more detailed explannation of the market breadth pattern from Timelysetup. Really good to read.
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