July 29th, 2011 a good day

Today is my best trading day since I start my trading. I booked 20 percent gain today.

We saw the market gap down to 1287. I set a market order for 2 put. I sold them a little cheap. Learn that DO NOT set market order at the open, as at the open the volatility is too high I guess. I sold the remaining put around 1285.

Market overshoot the 200MA to 1283. I bought 4 Sep 129 calls at 3.76, 6 cents higher than the lowest of day (3.70). I did not expect market bounced so strong to 1304. I sold my calls way too early when I saw 1296 for 4.24. Could earn more, but I am still quite happy with it.

For next monday, I feel we will retest 1286 zone again to form some kind of double bottom. If next monday we closed at the low around 1286, it would be another great long opportunity for the oversold bounce on next Tuesday. Hope this will happen then I can make some money.

I have one Sep 133 put from 1299 holding over the weekend before the debts ceiling decision. I did not close it due to the day trading restriction. Currently 50 dollar unrealized gain. If we could see a flat open or lower open on Monday, I would close it immediately. Wish I would not lose money on this put. Hard to tell.

July 28th, 2011 Relief

Lucky we did see an early morning bounce, which saved my calls.

I bought some calls sequentially when the market was down to close yesterday. My average for the Sep 129 calls is 5.06. I sold them today from 11:15am squentially up to 5.24. Even though not much profit, it did save my yesterday loss a lot.

The TICK bounced from -1000 to -356. When another TICK close at -700 to -800 area, it is going to be another long opportunity. Will it happen when we touch 200MA? I guess very likely.

Currently I am having 3 Sep 133 put positions. Two from 1310, the other from 1301. They should give me some gains tomorrow. Bless.

Who Rules America? An Investment Manager Breaks Down the Economic Top 1%, Says 0.1% Controls Political and Legislative Process

Who Rules America? An Investment Manager Breaks Down the Economic Top 1%, Says 0.1% Controls Political and Legislative Process

Good reading!

July 27th, 2011 reflection

I bought when spx at 1311.50 around 10:30AM. It is a good short term entry. SPX bounced from 1311 to 1320 around noon. My Sep 129 call went up from 5.20 to 5.50.

Bad exit! I always sell too late. Did not take profit but got caught.

$TICK is below 1000. I wish we will see a bounce (gap up) tomorrow morning up to 1310. I will take off then.

Otherwise, will we visit 200MA at 1286 tomorrow?

Jul 26th 2001, what will happen next?

$TICK is approaching extreme reading and SPX at 50MA in 60minute chart. Are we going to have a short term bounce tomorrow? Long at the extreme reading under -400 or long at the higher low?

Jul 25th, 2011, Some thoughts

Today $TICK closed at -743, which is extremly reading. What will happen tomorrow? As now, the /ES is down 6 points, which indicates it will likely gap down tomorrow morning.

Are we going to see more negative $TICK reading tomorrow, down to -1000? Will the future going similar to 06/06/2011 to 06/08/2011? Two more futhere down then oversold bounce?

/ES keeps dropping down. Not look good!


Trading idea:

1. NCT: in the passed two days, very low volume pullback. Today it closed at 9EMA. If the market is up tomorrow, NCT could bounce from there.

2. ALKS: close right at 50MA. Watch for a possible bounce tomorrow?

Thinkorswim script

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/thinkScriptHelp.jsp?laf=bright

http://tda.thinkorswim.com/manual/dark/thinkscript/index.html

http://freethinkscript.blogspot.com/

http://thinkscript.blogspot.com/2007/12/heres-simple-script-to-see-vwap-volume.html

Code example:


declare lower;

input fastLength = 12;
input slowLength = 26;
input MACDLength = 9;

def fastAvg = sum(volume * close, fastLength) / sum(volume, fastLength);
def slowAvg = sum(volume * close, slowLength) / sum(volume, slowLength);
plot Value = fastAvg - slowAvg;
plot Avg = ExpAverage(Value, MACDLength);
plot Diff = Value - avg;
plot ZeroLine = 0;

Value.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(1));
Avg.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(8));
Diff.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.HISTOGRAM);
Diff.SetLineWeight(3);
Diff.DefineColor("Positive and Up", Color.GREEN);
Diff.DefineColor("Positive and Down", Color.DARK_GREEN);
Diff.DefineColor("Negative and Down", Color.RED);
Diff.DefineColor("Negative and Up", Color.DARK_RED);
Diff.AssignValueColor(if diff >= 0 then if diff > diff[1] then Diff.color("Positive and Up") else Diff.color("Positive and Down") else if diff < diff[1] then Diff.color("Negative and Down") else Diff.color("Negative and Up"));
ZeroLine.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(0));

Watch list for next week July 18 to 22

Monday:
1. CROX (long if we gap up on Monday)

Dairy Week 7 Day 5

Watchlist for next week: MDAS

1. BasicMaterial:
CRS

2. Heathcare:
RPTP ARIA INSM AVEO QCOR SCLN(*) ACHN CHTP SGEN(watch on Monday) BIIB ACOR(*) FRX(*) OSUR SPPI IDIX(*) EXAM(watch on Monday) THOR(very good chart, long term cup and handle, watch for powerful break out) MYL(*) ZLCS(watch on Monday)

3. Tansportation: ( in general, this sector is weak)
TAM GLF RJET HOS SSW GOL YRCW(low value stock, but may break out very soon, watch 1.32) CHRW. Also old friend GLNG.

4. Technology
HOLI NTAP ERTS SPRD ENTR

5. Utilies
GEN XTXI EIX DYN EP

6. ConsNonCyclical
BGS DAR HEK

Some good reading for this weekend

1. http://bigbullandbigbear.blogspot.com

"How to Control Emotions in Trading". There is an interesting trading system. Going to dig in.

Summary: The setup is used to search for the end of a trend if possible. The setup is using the 8EMA and 21EMA and the Heikin Ashi bars. For the Heikin Ashi bars, a red bar means that the verage closing price of the prior 6 bars is in hte lower 50% of its range, indicating a bearish bias. The opposite is true of the green bars. What's nice about this indicator is it takes into context a group of bars -- not just a single bar. A group shows a trend change, a rotation from a bullish bias to bearish bias and vice versa. A single can be an anomaly.

Heikin Ashi System: (from Investopedia)

1. A candle with a small body and long upper and lower shadows indicates a change in the trend. If you are brave soul, you may want to add or sell shares at this point. Personally, I'm inclined to wait for a confirmation bar in this situation.
2. Hollow candles lacking lower shadows (hollow candles indicate an uptrend, and solid candles indicate a downtrend) indicate a strong uptrend. Obviously, and a strong uptrend you'll want to maintain your position.
3. The exact opposite of point number 2, filled candles with no higher shadows indicate a strong downward move and most traders will stay in their trade. One quick point though, I am hesitant to enter into an already well-established trend. This is referred to as piling onto a trade and you risk piling on late in that trend movement and sustaining a loss.
4. Filled candles indicate a downtrend.
5. Hollow candles indicate an uptrend.

AKAM -- buying opportunity for long term hold or not!?

I used to have a big win and another big loss from AKAM trade. We saw AKAM had two huge gap down due to the bad ER in the passed two quarters. Will the third ER be good? The next ER is on 07/27/2011. I feel AKAM is bottomed here. It is going to break out very very soon. I will watch 32 zone as a confirmation to long AKAM next week. I am going to long 25 shares AKAM again for a long term hold. Be patient with it.

Link for Worden TC guide

http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=23816

http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=3181

http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=26559

Dairy Week 7 Day 4 - Not a too good day for me

Today we see the US index break up from a mini 2 day resting. I find an interesting chart online (see above) indicating we are at the trendline resistance. I have the same feeling that we are going to see pullback tomorrow. Some of the strong trending stocks I followed, such as RAX, MAKO, gave up their early morning gain quickly in the afternoon. This action is definitely different from yesterday and days before. If the environment is good, they should not pull back so much. This indicates to me that people are cautious and starting to take profit. Let us see what will happen tomorrow.

Today I do not do well in the trading. I make the same kind of mistakes as before.

1.VRX: It was up to 54.50 in the early morning, but closed at 53.52 today. I made this winning trade to be a losing trade again. I admit that I have too much expectation for VRX, as I want to hold it long enough to see it breaks out 55 zone to start trending. I am too greedy. If I regard VRX as a short term trading, I believe I would definitely sell it today around 55.30 in the 2nd push up. But obviously I did not do it and did not raise my stop to 53.83 to break even. My bad!!! I do not know how to do with VRX tomorrow if we see the weakness in the market. Hopefully VRX do not drop much to hold 53 zone. I feel very likely cannot hold. It is my choice if I want to hold it more time to wait new buyers coming. Not feel good.



2. MAKO: Good entry, bad exit! I could earn more in the MAKO trade. I did not see the volume spike at 11:00Am after 20 minute when the price was like 33.90. I should sell it immediately. But instead I set a stop at 33.72 and quickly stopped out. Anyway, this trade is better than VRX trade, as I made money through it. But it teaches me to sell when seeing the volume spike without price moving immediately.





FSLR, a huge 503400 volume down bar around 1:45pm (see below chart). What does this mean? I want to see how FSLR act in the next few days? I thought it was going to be bullish few days ago.

Dairy Week 7 Day 3 - 07/06/2011

Still today is another sideway for the US index. As long as the index sideways, it is safe to long strong stocks. HNSN and TNAV, what a good move today from yesterday's watch list. They are such a quick mover. I spotted TNAV at 9:35AM for 18.90, which is already 2 percent up. I am not sure to chase it from here or not. It turned out the pullback at 10:00Am is good entry for TNAV. And for HNSN, same story here. I need to chase them.

Lesson from Mautzman:
On fast moving stocks i have a perfect trailing stop - try the 9EMA in 15min chart - works nearly perfect an all stocks who make moves over 3% on a day.

Today I made four trades.

1. Close QID trade at 48.40 for less than 1 percent loss. Today we see the market gap down due to the weakness in the euro market. QID was around 48.50 pre-market. At that moment, I raised my stop from 48.15 to 48.40, which yesterday's close price. I feel it is better to close this bad short trade ASAP. Very quickly I was stopped out. Now it looks like a good cut loss trade. Market is strong, do not short, but focusing on strong stock.

2. VRX is my top pick yesterday. So I longed VRX at the open for 53.83. What a pity that I did not pick TNAV or HNSN, but instead picked VRX. I just feel I am always to pick up the wrong one, LOL. VRX did not act strong as I expected. But as long as VRX hold 53 zone, I am not worry about it. It has a four month consolidation. Once it breaks out the 55 zone, I believe it will fly. Remeber the trade for GLNG. Today may be just a pause or hestitation for VRX. I am going to hold VRX as long as it goes for a swing trade.

3. I got a message alert for RAX at 44.74. When I saw the text message, RAX goes like 44.80, 44.85, 44.90 in one minute. Based on the volume action, I decided to chase. I longed RAX for 44.90, and booked the 2 percent profit at 45.80 around 12:30pm for the 2nd round push up. RAX will break up the 46 zone soon. I will buy it again. This trade convinces me to buy strong stocks with momentum. It is like a tide, the boat is easy to be up in the pace of a tide. Also price confirmation is important. I used like to buy on pullback at 9EMA on 15m chart. But sometimes this pullack will drop more than I expect or start a down trend, e.g. my old AVL trade. So it is better to long at the previous high point for a safe break out. Look at IPSU today, morning it was down to 19.50, which looks like a short. But from 10AM, IPSU was up sharply, buy at 20.25 is a good entry for IPSU. Now IPSU looks so charm to break out tomorrow.

4. Before close, I long MAKO at 33.23. Actually I was thinking about longing MAKO yesterday close, what a miss for a 5 percent move today. Anyway, I longed MAKO today for Aa intensity breakout. It should be up tomorrow to follow its momentum. Stop is set at 32.27.

_____________________________________________________________________

Watch list for tomorrow: COOL, IMGN, ISTA, BSFT

Dairy Week 7 Day 2 - 07/05/2011

It is the first trading day after the July 4th. SPX index and INDU index both close slightly in red. This is a very positive signal for the bull, as we see almost all the dip are bought today intraday. This is a sudden dip for SPX from 1340 to 1334 around 2pm. But it is quickly bought back.

What a nice move for NFLX. It is a decisive clear break out making the new high. We see the big gap in the opening and continue going up in the first 5 minutes. My question is : under what case, can I chase this kind of strong move? If chase it under this case, say entry at 283, there is still a $6 dollar profit at the close. I bet NFLX will continue the up momentum tomorrow.

I am having a under water trade for QID. COMP index is up due to the strong move of NFLX, even though SPX and INDU are close in red. I observe that usually NASDAQ have strong move than the SPX. It is better to buy SDS instead of QID if want to have short ETF. SPX is more normalized than COMP, which makes it more diversified. I thought I placed an intial stop for SDS at 48.55 in the open, but it turned out I made a mistake to set the stop at 47.55. I need to pay more attention next time. Stupid action! Now I have stop set at 48.15. I feel that I am very likely to set stop out tomorrow. Actually when QID was 48.80 and 48.55, I was thinking to cut the tiny loss at that moment. But I did not do it. I feel that was a weakness I have. Need to avoid it.

Lesson: Do not short the index while in any bullish move. Look for individual stocks to play under this case.

I have posted a shopping list yesterday. 95 percent of them are green and over 2 percent gain today. To name some, SPPI, VRX, APKT, ROSE, RES, GPOR, JAZZ. My conclusion is that, in the bull market, it is safer to long the relative strength stocks even though they may seem overbought. Strong stocks always attract more buyer coming.

________________________________________________________

Some stock I watch tomorrow: VRX, TNAV, HNSN, TZOO, DEPO, NVMI....

Short idea: CIEN

Too many watch list. Need to focus. Say 1. VRX first choice, swing trade for several days. 2. AAPL: call option for a day trade?

PEAD (post earnings announcement drift)

I come across at (http://ivanhoff.com/) to notice the following approach developed by Ivan Hoff. It looks like an interesting approach. I need to take sometime to dig into it.

http://ivanhoff.com/how-markets-work/

Quotes as following:

My equity selection approach is based on PEAD (post earnings announcement drift).

I pay attention to stocks that meet the following criteria:

1) Grow their earnings and sales at an impressive pace;

2) Have just surprised the Street’s estimates by a wide margin after a long period of being neglected in terms of price range and liquidity.

3) Breaking out to at least new 6 month high (I prefer multi-year highs);

Prices trends are fueled by catalysts. The most powerful catalysts always have an element of surprise ingrained in them. The best performing stocks in any given year are the ones that manage to surprise the most often and by the highest margin. The surprises are always earnings related. When they are not related to actual earnings, they are related to expectations for future earnings.

Stock lists with relative strength

I have a stock list from NYSE NASDAQ and AMEX with relative strength. They are sorted by last Friday's volume. They are going to be my shopping list for July.

NFLX ERX RVBD PTEN ANF CPX SUG QCOR TIBX VHC CROX BIIB CVI TIF LULU HANS APKT PPO GMCR COG FTNT TPX PCLN SGY VRX TBL UA PLCM HS HLF BAS CMG CRZO GRA MAKO ST WCG ROSE GLNG RES CBST WTI WBC DDS DPZ KRO GPOR ROC INFA AH REGN JAZZ FOSL NTGR WLK ACTG ULTA GTLS VSI SFLY WTW CPHD BKI TITN CYOU RBN MDVN GLBC GRM IPGP VRUS DSW IDT RRGB GCO AVEO TRS PII BJRI LXU CRR N IOSP CEVA PSMT ATLS DMND TPCG USAP

Dairy Week 6 Day 7 the last trading day before independence day

on 07/01/2011, The US market continued going high on the Friday. SPX closed at 1340, while the upper bollinger band is only 1323. I 90 percent missed the rally in this week. I am not able to move my 401k from the fixed, what a pity.

Today GLNG was up 5 percent at the high. I should not close my GLNG on Thursday close. It just takes a rest on Thursday.

Around 3pm, I longed QID at 48.78 and hold for the long weekend. Let us see what will happen on next Tuesday.

Good Learning blog about Indicator and Trading Pattern

From blog ---Become Your Own Trading Coach

http://becomeyourowntradingcoach.blogspot.com/2009/12/indicator-and-trading-pattern-posts.html

I am going to take the holiday to learn the technique described in this blog.