3X ETF

ETF Daily News Notes Some Popular Related Leveraged ETFs:Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:FAZ), Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF (NYSE:FAS), Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shrs (NYSE:DRV), Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shrs (NYSE:DRN), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TZA), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TNA), Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:BGU), Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:BGZ), Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:ERX), Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:ERY), Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:EDC), Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:EDZ).

CPC Call/Put Ratio

when CPC <= 0.80, 17 out of 21 times (81%) a red day the next day.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CPC

Market Breadth Indicator - Bullish Percent Index

Market Breadth Indicator - Bullish Percent Index

http://patientfisherman.blogspot.com/

In short, Market Breadth Indicators tell us the underlying strength of the market or any given index. Stockcharts.com describes the Bullish Percent Index as:

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within an index. Because a stock is either on a P&F buy or sell signal, there is no ambiguity when it comes to P&F charts. This makes BPI a straightforward indicator with clearly defined signals.


Basically, you are watching for the daily index line to cross over or cross under the 10 day moving average. When the you get a cross above, you would move in to the market, cross under you move back into cash.

You can watch the indicator for all of the major indexes:

$BPCOMPQ - Nasdaq
$BPNYA - NYSE
$BPSPX - S&P 500
$BPINDU - Dow

Introduction to the VIX ETF (zz)

http://etfdb.com/2010/vix-etfs-crushed-by-contango/?utm_source=feedburner

VIX ETFs: Crushed By Contango

Four Attributes to an Explosive Stock Move (zz)

http://patientfisherman.blogspot.com/

What makes a stock move up rapidly versus some other stock that is a dead fish? Below are four attributes of a stock possibly starting an explosive move.

Volume - Above average volume tells you there is heighten interest in the stock for the day. Compare today's volume against a given time period to see if the stock is up on higher than average volume. Normally, I use a 50 day average volume indicator.

Price - While today’s price matters, it has more meaning in the context of the price action today compared against the past week, month, or year. Depending on how a stock moves today compared against those time periods, you can get a shift of expectations from the market.

Low Float - This is one of the secret ingredients that can propel a stock faster than others. Float is the number of outstanding shares available to the public for trading. Less supply combined with more demand will drive a stock price higher and faster. Why is there more demand? At some point, there is a Shift in Expectations for the stock.

Shift in Expectations - A Shift in Expectations from the market is what drives a stock from a sideways or neglected price pattern to an uptrend. A shift in expectations can occur from news driven events like earnings or simply from the stock making a new high.

For instance, if I’m watching Stock A which has been consolidating for 4 weeks and suddenly it breaks out of that pattern on above average volume, my expectation for that stock has just changed. I’m sure other traders that were watching the stock had a similar shift in expectations.

While there can be news driven events that can cause a Shift in Expectations, the truest indicator is volume and price and how they are acting compared against different time frames.

Price and Volume act as a predictor of increased demand. Many times, price and volume will pick up before the news event occurs. If you’re waiting for a news event you can miss a majority of the move because many times it will be priced into the stock.

A few other items that can cause a Shift in Expectations are earnings guidance, sector strength, or a new ETF coming out around a specific sector (example: Mining and Minerals). The shift can occur from things that seem mundane at first glance, so focusing on the price action of individual stocks can keep you attuned to where the money is flowing.

In the end, the Expectations for a stock are what drive price higher. At some point a shift has occurred where market participants think the stock is worth more than what it was yesterday. Whether their hypothesis is true does not really matter, it is causing more demand for the stock. Things like earnings surprises or guidance can tell us why, but in many cases the moves are more subtle and you have to rely on price and volume for the clues.

Trading rules

http://www.quicktradesblog.com/2010/01/trading-rules.html

What rules/conditions do you trade by? They may not be written down or recited but chances are there are some things one tends to follow when trading.

Although I have not been trading for long I try to strictly adhere to guidelines I have either established from my own mistakes, saw happen to others, or in some cases read about. For those individuals who learn by doing things (kinesthetic learners) sometimes you have to lose money to learn from it. A select number of traders were lucky to meet someone who could teach and guide them. From my experience these people still make mistakes but typically fewer unless they also picked up bad habits. Lastly people that learn by seeing or hearing may have picked up things from reading or some other combination of things. There are many ways we develop these rules we trade by and for many reasons.

Now some of you may wonder why I writing such a post. Well, today was a day where I failed to follow my guidelines. Therefore I think recalling what I can and sharing them with you, the reader would not only benefit you but myself as well.

1)Plan the trade before you initiate it. These things could include: where to enter, stop loss, when to take profit, how many shares, any other elements of the technical picture, and many others things. This is critical because once one enters a trade it can cloud your judgement. Paper trading is one thing but when your actually in a trade things may become altered: maybe you'll be too greedy, or use a set a generic set of parameter which may not be appropriate for the stock, or take money off too soon. Being impulsive is a dangerous thing so make sure you know what you're getting into. The same goes with anticipating a trend and entering early. Don't go in until your sure from your review everything is in place.

2)Don't jump on the bandwagon. Just because someone is entering a trade and they have a really good record doesn't mean it can't go bad, everyone makes mistakes. Do your analysis first and then decide if its applicable to you.

3)Once your stop(s)/exit plan is in place do not change it. This was one I learned the hard way back about 5-6 months. The stock (SCLN) started heading down and the trend was breaking down (I didn't see this at the time) and I cancelled my stop. A few days later the stock plummeted and I took the biggest loss of my life.

4)Do not add to a losing position. If the cost of a security is less than what you payed do not increase the size of your position wait till the stocks is moving in your favor then you may consider adding. This again another I learned from first hand experience.

5)Do not play earnings. There are too many factors that could cause the price of something to differ from its earnings results. If anything play the hype and sell before earnings.

6)Anything can happen. Just because your analysis points to a uptrend/downtrend/etc there is always the possibility for failed signals. Nothing is certain remember it is called an edge for a reason. This point is out of a book I finished last week. Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. In his book he mentions the five fundamental truths:

Anything can happen
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money
There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
An edge is nothing more than a n indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
Every moment in the market is unique
Douglas's book is about the psychology of trading and I would recommend it to anyone.


At this time I can't think of anymore guidelines I use but these are the ones that most frequently come up.

Time to go shopping (zz)

Time to go shopping

http://www.gicharts.blogspot.com/

Buying the following ;
Citigroup Inc ( C )
Bank Of America Corp ( BAC )
Ishares emerging markets ETF (EEM)
Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X ETF (FAS)
Alcoa Inc ( AA )
iShares Trust FTSE China ( FXI )
Hope to buy more on an oversold/spike down
The bull market is intact , normal pull back after a steep uptrend.
And yes, Ireland will be saved ; Europe's credibility is at stake

俺理解的FA和TA的本质区别 (zz)

发信人: fyang1024 (阿飞正赚), 信区: Stock
标 题: 俺理解的FA和TA的本质区别
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 12 05:26:19 2010, 美东)

在FA的人看来，TA的交易行为是荒唐的；在TA的人看来，FA的人买卖行为是不靠谱的。

TA的人的典型交易行为是，在一支股票10块钱时不买，而等股票涨到12块时买入了，等
涨到14块时加仓了，这时候FA的人就会嘲笑：你看当初你在10块钱时全仓，现在得多赚
多少啊。哪怕你在12块时满仓也好啊，非要等到14块才满仓，太笨了。

FA的人的典型买卖行为是，一只股票因为一个坏消息，从50块暴跌到30块，FA的人觉得
市场上的人都是傻子，这支股票明明值45块的（根据他的计算），买入，结果股票继续
跌到20块，FA的人认为这个市场疯了，心想如果自己是巴菲特就把整个公司就买下来，
但是手头的钱已经套进去了，剩得不多了，但还是买了一些。这时TA的人觉得FA的人脑
子进水了，当初跌破30块正是做空的时候啊，怎么这家伙反而做多了？

刚才说的是现象。
FA的本质是静态的看待一支股票，是一种价值决定论、股票宿命论，所以FA通常不设止
损的，运气好的能回本，运气不好的割肉割在地板上；而TA的本质是量子论，认为未来
是多种可能性的集合，未来的可能性随着事态的发展而不停地变化，合格的TA总是设止
损或止盈的，并且随着价格的变化不停的调整止盈或止损的，因为未来是不确定的。

本人是坚定的TA，如果有对FA有啥误解的地方，欢迎指正。

----------------------------------------------------------

FA不是不止损，而是根据基本面止损，而不是根据股价止损。另外FA最重要的一个赚钱
依据是公司的良好管理是可以持续的。举个例子，公司因为不可预见的一个重大损失股
价下跌，跌破TA提供的止损价，但FA认为公司管理没有问题，股价暴跌反而提供了良好
的入场机会。

------------------------------------------------------------


FA显然不是静态地看公司，而是看不断变化的股价是否符合公司在不断变化的市场环境
下的各种senario下最有可能实现的市场价值。
“一支股票因为一个坏消息，从50块暴跌到30块”显然是因为这个消息使得大家期望中
的公司前景有所变化，positive senario实现的概率大大降低，而negative senario实
现的概率大大上升。如果市场上全是TA的话，那任何消息都不会影响股价了。做FA的目
的就是分析再更新了你对公司的认知以后，量化这个坏消息到底对公司的影响是-20%（
买入），-40%（持有）还是-60%（卖出）。

巴菲特也会高买低卖的，比如COP，因为他认为油价暴跌以后市场的负面变化比公司股
价的下跌幅度更大。但我们不把这个叫做“止损”，如果当时COP跌得少一点的话，他
只会卖得更多而不是更少。

------------------------------------------------------------

不同的人有不同的TA,
不同的庄用不同的方法操盘，
相同的庄不同的方法操作不同的股票，
相同的庄对同一只股票在不同的时期用不同的方法操盘。
俺认为TA非常的科学，精确得让人惊讶

-----------------------------------------------------------

http://tradingstockz.blogspot.com/?expref=next-blog

zz 对预测股票走势的一些想法及操作手段

对预测股票走势的一些想法及操作手段

zz from http://mylittlestock.blogspot.com/2009_10_01_archive.html


假设股票市场的变化是一个平稳随机过程，那么它就具有遍历性,也就是各态历经过程。各态历经过程的每个样本都经历了随机过程的各种可能状态,任何一个样本都能充分地代表此随机过程的统计特性。

简单一点说，就是你能预测明天，你就能预测后天，那个MACD曲线就是根据这样一个假设。

反过来讲，如果股票市场的变化不是一个平稳随机过程，你不能预测明天，也就不能预测后天，整个市场都是无法预测的。

当然概率论是从赌博的方法发展而来的，数学基础不是太牢固，我的印象中主要靠契比雪夫（Chebyshev）的几个不等式撑着，可能不准确，有大侠对此有异议，我也无话可说。

即使股票市场的变化不符合平稳过程的定义，但其中某只股票在某一段时间内变化还是很有可能符合广义平稳过程的定义的，在此区间之内，符合此前提假设的那些曲线指标和秘籍系统可能会有效，出了此区间自然失效。

所以股票走势短期预测的成功率要远大于长期预测的成功率，单位时间距离越短，预测的成功率就越高。。。。。

至于为什么有人会觉得，股票走势是可以长期预测的，那是因为股票走势的统计特性的重复率很高，高到只分为牛市和熊市的地步，而且就像冬天和夏天的区别那样明显。

但是，你不是因为夏天过去，就确定冬天会来到，而是因为温度持续在零下时，符合冬天的定义了，才确定冬天来到了。
比如《后天》里持续低温，那就一直是冬天，没有夏天，也没有人知道什么时候冬天会过去，直到气温升高。

同样原理，当股票持续下跌时，你才确认是熊市；当股票持续上涨时，你才确认是牛市。而不是牛市过去，你就确认熊市来到了

然后就发现自己无意中证明了两种现象
一，那些做毫秒级别的daytrading的公司能挣钱，而且是下单的速度越快，挣钱的概率就越大，所以他们才比着采用最先进的巨型计算机系统。

二，顺势而为是正确的的操作方法，因为你先要确定冬天来了，才可以穿上羽绒服。


这个方法很牛，值得一试，就是不知道可以一次上多少。

以上ＤＡＹ　ＴＲＡＤＥ　ＡＣＣＯＵＮＴ　主要采用　ＲＳＩ，　ＥＲＧＯＤＩＣ，　Ｅｌｌｉｏｔ　Ｏｓｃｉａｌｌａｔｏｒ，Ｗｉｌｌｉａｍａ　％　作为　ＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＯＲＳ。基本方法是：　在ＥＲＧＯＤＩＣ，ELLIOTOSCILLATOR， WILLIAM% 于五分钟图上都到达顶部的时候 进入（买PUT），在 WILLIAMS% 到达底部 COVER， 不管 其他ＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＯＲ是否已经到底部。　反之则做CALL。
这次到佛罗里达学习，老师的方法也很好，是在MACD和ERGODIC 都冲破中线就进入，出去则不看任何 INDICATOR,及时套利。




其实我今天发的帖子就证明了这个方法为什么会有效。

ERGODIC——就是遍历性的，各态历经性的意思。
MACD和ERGODIC就是基于概率论中的随机过程理论的假设建立的公式曲线！

所以，当某只股票在某一段时间内变化符合广义平稳过程的定义时，在此区间之内，符合此前提假设的那些曲线指标（MACD和ERGODIC）可能会有效，出了此区间自然失效。

所以，股票走势短期预测的成功率要远大于长期预测的成功率，单位时间距离越短，预测的成功率就越高，所以要及时取利，下单速度越快越好。而且这个方法对随机性越强的股票越有效，换句话说就是交易量特别大的股票，所以AAPL，SPY的option都是备选。



1）
以上ＤＡＹ　ＴＲＡＤＥ　ＡＣＣＯＵＮＴ　主要采用　ＲＳＩ，　ＥＲＧＯＤＩＣ，　Ｅｌｌｉｏｔ　Ｏｓｃｉａｌｌａｔｏｒ，Ｗｉｌｌｉａｍａ　％　作为ＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＯＲＳ。基本方法是：　在ＥＲＧＯＤＩＣ，ELLIOTOSCILLATOR， WILLIAM% 于五分钟图上都到达顶部的时候 进入（买PUT），在 WILLIAMS% 到达底部 COVER， 不管 其他ＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＯＲ是否已经到底部。　反之则做CALL。
这次到佛罗里达学习，老师的方法也很好，是在MACD和ERGODIC 都冲破中线就进入，出去则不看任何 INDICATOR,及时套利。
2）
偶不止损，但偶TAKE LOSS。 除非TRADE EMIN 指数，MM 不能看见你的ORDER。 不然，让人看见你的ＳＴＯＰ　ORDER 不好。
3）
RSI （7，14）。5分钟图。 尤其是 RSI 出现正背离，反背离的时候，再加上其他几个INDICATOR 的合作，就是做好的入场时机。。

这位14年的老手进化出来的东西还是值得一看的。泉女士的操作风格根我很像，有非常好的入场信号，一招吃遍，cut loss 但不设止损。区别在于我不用她那4个指标。不过我好像说过，不同的指标描述同一个东西，所以会有某个时刻，大多数指标指向同一个方向，那就是套利（统计意义上的套利， statistical arbitrage）的时候。

(zz) 我是如何判断大盘走势的（一）—VIX指数

我是如何判断大盘走势的（一）—VIX指数

突然发现有朋友是用拨号上网来看我的博客的，经济危机，大家都不容易啊。
所以我决定写一些容易上手的技巧，来帮助炒股的朋友，或者说是不得不炒股的朋友。

VIX是COBE市场波动指数的意思，和市场的option的价格是密切相关的。他们之间的关系是vix指数高，option的价格就高，此时卖option就比买option赚钱的概率大。如果vix指数低，option的价格就低，此时买option就比卖option赚钱的概率大。

VIX的升高和降低，决定了我在股票市场中是以买option的策略为主还是以卖option的策略为主。

既然是市场波动指数，VIX的升高和降低实际是由大盘的波动决定的，大盘方向明确的时候，VIX指数就低；大盘方向不明确的时候，vix指数就高。就目前来说，vix指数下降的很快，说明市场的对大盘的方向的看法趋于一致，大盘向上的概率要大于向下的概率。

下面的链接是dow30和vix的三个月走势比较图。从图上可以看出来他们之间的关系。
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=indu

以上是我对vix的简单理解，希望朋友们给予批评指正。

www.stockta.com

花一分钟找到股票的支撑位和阻力位。

1。 在地址栏输入www.stockta.com

2。 在此网站首页上输入你想查的股票代码

3。这支股票的所有阻力位和支撑位就会显示在屏幕的左边了。


一只股票的阻力位和支撑位可以做为你的止赢和止损的价位的参考。

CIEN

CIEN

38.2% = 14.41;
(MA 50) = 14.45;
(MA 200) = 14.63;

or maybe retrace

ER on 1st week of Nov,2010

Some companies of interest reporting this week:
Monday: ACOR, AGN, BHI, CTSH, CTB, ICE, JKS, APC, ESLR, EXTR, WFR, NTRI, and VMC.

Tuesday: ADM, BP, CLX, COCO, K, NYX, CECO, CQB, ERTS, HTZ, LEAP, MYGN, TEVA, OPEN, STEC, and WYNN.

Wednesday: ANR, ASCA, CVS, GRMN, JRCC, MGM, TAP, Q, TWX, CELL, FRPT, ROCK, JCOM, QCOM, MELI, MUR, PRU, SWIR, THQI, WBMD, and WFMI.

Thursday: APA, BDX, CVC, CBOE, CCOI, DTV, RAIL, PCS, ZEUS, SMG, TWC, UPL, USM, WWE, AMLN, BEBE, NILE, CEDC, CF, FLR, FTEK, HANS, JDSU, MCHP, SBUX, and SVNT.

Friday: BZH, BAM, CEP, DISH, SATS, FIG, FWLT, FCN, NVAX, PXP, SOL, and YRCW.

炒股炒的是心态！( zt顺其自然)

<>序：股市如水，变化无常，而赚钱有方。投资非赌，将炒为赌者，久之必输。炒者，火候也，时机也；火候不对，若炒菜，则或生或糊无以下口；若炒股，则损兵折将苦果难尝。拼拼杀杀，杀杀拼拼，斑斑血泪，血泪斑斑，方悟赚钱之道，只有一方：低进高出，高出低进，如此而已！阴阳相生而相克；跌到极低，阴尽而阳生；涨至极高，阳老则阴胜；物极必反，势所使然。若层峦叠嶂，若深涧幽谷，颠倒翻覆，妙用无穷。像那熊熊牛牛，空空多多，追涨杀跌，杀跌追涨，殚精竭虑，玩那针尖削铁的游戏，长赚久赢者，鲜之有也。炒股所恃者，实力也。偕大资本之实力者，所谓庄家也。庄家者，兴风作浪，翻手云雨，压低拉高，拉高压低，多来杀多，空来杀空，真真假假，假假真真，虚虚实实，实实虚虚。他有计划知实情，随心所欲；你无方略被玩弄，处处陷阱！故绝大多数股民，其亏钱也必；宰的就是你，赚你没商量！而于小资本之股民者，所恃者，唯智慧也。智慧者何？有三也。首曰资金管理，风险控制。每只进股当适量。何谓适量？睡得安稳，错亦无碍也。但有资本在手，就可重整旗鼓，再败再战，总有出头之日。最误人者，重仓出击，犹嫌不足，赌徒心理，借钱炒股，其取败也速，破产之捷径也。不知大千股海，潮起潮落，机会无尽，来日方长，何必在一次一时！二曰策略得当，只做自己能理解的。武当少林，无谓短长。你玩你的，我玩我的。只要赚钱，就是好股！又不是觅夫人寻相公，谁管他绩优或绩差，股小又股大，古狗苹果蓬皮查，消息满天好还差！如你见一群狮子老虎在打架，我不信谁会去挽袖掳拳瞎参乎，何不让那些大鳄巨鲨自搏杀，任我等逍遥自在赚易钱，沽酒钓鱼做神仙。三曰技术，勤练自精。譬如剑术，一招一式，比比划划，功到自然成，把您那熟悉的类型搞精熟，就想不赚钱他也难。之后再慢慢扩展地盘。所以说股市如战场，要深挖洞(多钻研)、广积粮(积经验)、高筑墙(防风险)、缓称王(稳赚赚稳)，人生原来都一样！日积月累，自然精熟，经验老道，方能达到“稳、准、快、狠”，手不乱动，大脑先行，以至于心手合一的境界。炒股最忌者蠢贪二字。蠢者，术不精也，眼不明也，心无定也，手乱动也！(有几个炒股生涯没骂过自己猪头的，请举手！)贪者，明明到顶，不肯撒手；明明快马难追，仍然大举抢进；明明跌跌不休，仍然心存侥幸。何也？往往因蠢而生贪，因贪而更蠢，无以自拔。究其原因，一乃经验不足，不懂技术，不识水性。认真学习，不断练习，时日一长，自然提高。二乃心态不正，其最突出者，以炒股为赌博，只望一夜暴富，何曾付出辛苦！不知凡任何事，要想成功，都得努力，都得专业一点。另一不正心态，乃凡稍有挫折，即灰心丧气，颓萎不知所措，岂不知神仙也是凡人做，只是凡人心不坚！当再鼓精气，继续努力。又则忍不得，一点耐心也无；凡股价稍稍偏离，不去仔细分析，即慌慌逃出；本来好股，只赚小钱，甚至亏损。等股价再升，又悔之莫及，匆忙又进，反而被套；这时他倒又不止损，却去固守，幻想反弹。如此反反复复，一年到头，不亏才怪，白忙白了少年头。凡此种种，不一而足，皆成魔障，阻人成功。故更上层楼，大智慧者，则曰心态，曰中庸，曰不贪婪；曰忍，曰顺其自然，顺势而为；曰股票非股非非股，曰心中无股，曰非股票动，乃尔心动；曰人生，曰哲理，曰祸福相倚；曰月白风清，花是红的叶是绿的，曰修心养性。。。如此者再三，而仙道成也。仙者，不贪也，无争也，胜人不如超越自我也；恬淡者，心态也，不强求也，适可而止也，得失一笑，得是经验，失是学习也。歌曰：老君八卦炉中炼，阴阳火候都齐全；烟熏火燎成金睛，点石变金一指仙。石者，何也？垃圾也，彼弃之者，吾取之也；变废为宝，彼求之者，吾与之也，赶快拿去！正所谓，两只投资眼，一片济人心；悟者自悟，不悟者不悟。悟了的，慧眼独具石变金，日日清闲自在；不悟的，盲目从众金当砖，时时苦眉愁脸。咦！股海无边，性定是岸。性定则心明，心明则智慧生，智慧生则股股像如歌之行板，笔笔是精彩的华章。正所谓会的不忙，忙的不会；股市无常心有常，赚钱有方胜无方！此为之序。贻笑大方，权为一哂。

W. D. Gann Gann market forecasting methods

William Delbert Gann (6 June, 1878 – 14 June, 1955 - also known as W. D. Gann), was a finance trader who developed the technical analysis tools known as Gann angles, Square of 9, Hexagon, Circle of 360 (these are Master charts) and more importantly, he foretold wars, disasters, elections, market collapses and prosperity, tops and bottoms months (years) in advance. Gann market forecasting methods are based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics.[1][2] Opinions are sharply divided on the value and relevance of his work.[3] Gann wrote a number of books on trading.

WD Gann Theory and Elliott Wave Trading
http://www.acrotec.com/

http://blog.wdgann.com/

W.D.Gann Free Lesson 1 from YOUTUBE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tygO5awbG88