Many traders, especially beginners, are drawn to indicators, hoping
that an indicator will show them when to enter a trade. What they don't
realize is that the vast majority of indicators are based on simple price action,
and when I am placing trades, I simply cannot think fast enough to
process what several indicators might be telling me. Also, oscillators tend
to make traders look for reversals and focus less on price charts. These
can be effective tools on most days when the market has two or three reversals
lasting an hour or more. The problem comes when the market is
trending strongly. If you focus too much on your indicators, you will see
that they are forming divergences all day long, and you may find yourself
repeatedly entering Countertrend and losing money. By the time you come
to accept that the market is trending, you will not have enough time left
in the day to recoup your losses. Instead, if you were simply looking at a
bar or candle chart, you would see that the market is clearly trending, and
you would not be tempted by indicators to look for trend reversals. The
most common successful reversals first break a trendline with strong momentum
and then pullback to test the extreme, and if a trader focuses too
much on divergences, she will often overlook this fundamental fact. A divergence
in the absence of a Countertrend momentum surge that breaks a
trendline is a losing strategy. Wait for the trendline break, and then see if
the test of the old extreme reverses or if the old trend resumes. You do not
need an indicator to tell you that a strong reversal here is a high-probability
trade, at least for a scalp, and there will almost certainly be a divergence,
so why complicate your thinking by adding the indicator to your calculus?
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Bears cheer
Lol, I am a happy bear now. Today the SPX index was down another 1.68 percent with a nice follow through. Technology leads the down momentum. It is very strange to me that the small cap was holding very well during these two days. If the small cap die, then the market will have a much quicker flush.
Some people like to avoid these kind of big crash and they do have methods or methodology to avoid the crash. But in my philosophy, why not to catch these kind of furious crash to make money. From this July, I witnessed the power of bear market and saw how quickly market could drop in a few days to wipe out previous snail-like gains. I think it is a very good environment to trade as long as the trader's method is momentum play. Faceincabs is my mentor to be a bear. Even though he does not know me and I have never contacted with him. I learned a lot a lot from his tweets and his blog during this bear market. My current philosophy is to earn big money in market crash instead of staying sideline to watch for fun.
Reflecting on my trades from Tuesday, I should say I only catched 50 percent of the drop. I did not anticipate how quick the drop is. I missed many good opportunities to add my shorts and closed some of my short positions too early. Moreover, I am impatient to enter initial short position a little bit early on Monday close. Based on my timing model, I should short right before Tuesday close. I was just afraid to miss the bear rally. There is still a lot a lot of room for me to improve. I need to polish my trend following skills.
Right now, I have closed all my short position. My trading plan is to open new short on any reflex bounce. Tomorrow I am inclined to the upside for the market. Because I see the divergence in SPY/IWM 10 minutes chart. I opened a small TNA long position after market. Hopefully I can see market up in the first half hour tomorrow.
Some people like to avoid these kind of big crash and they do have methods or methodology to avoid the crash. But in my philosophy, why not to catch these kind of furious crash to make money. From this July, I witnessed the power of bear market and saw how quickly market could drop in a few days to wipe out previous snail-like gains. I think it is a very good environment to trade as long as the trader's method is momentum play. Faceincabs is my mentor to be a bear. Even though he does not know me and I have never contacted with him. I learned a lot a lot from his tweets and his blog during this bear market. My current philosophy is to earn big money in market crash instead of staying sideline to watch for fun.
Reflecting on my trades from Tuesday, I should say I only catched 50 percent of the drop. I did not anticipate how quick the drop is. I missed many good opportunities to add my shorts and closed some of my short positions too early. Moreover, I am impatient to enter initial short position a little bit early on Monday close. Based on my timing model, I should short right before Tuesday close. I was just afraid to miss the bear rally. There is still a lot a lot of room for me to improve. I need to polish my trend following skills.
Right now, I have closed all my short position. My trading plan is to open new short on any reflex bounce. Tomorrow I am inclined to the upside for the market. Because I see the divergence in SPY/IWM 10 minutes chart. I opened a small TNA long position after market. Hopefully I can see market up in the first half hour tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Short the market
We see a frustrating session for the bear. Today market gapped down and had a follow through to the downisde until 11:30AM. From the afternoon, we see a furious bullish movement go as high as 1264. Then the ugly sell off in the last half hour to wipe out 1 percent gain. Up to now, I still did not find the cause or news why the market bounced so strong in the afternoon. This market action really makes bull and bear strugguling. Right now it is a heavy battle between bear and bull. We will see the result very very soon once the index break out from the triangle.
I am in the bear camp now with 70 percent committed to the short side. I believe the index is going to break down from the triangle and I am planning to hold my short position for a few days. As I projected, my timing model gives the sell signal today. Hence the long position from 10/07/2011 is closed. Within this period, TNA gained 37.82%.
At the timing I am writing, future ES is down 10 points. Bear will win this battle!
I am in the bear camp now with 70 percent committed to the short side. I believe the index is going to break down from the triangle and I am planning to hold my short position for a few days. As I projected, my timing model gives the sell signal today. Hence the long position from 10/07/2011 is closed. Within this period, TNA gained 37.82%.
At the timing I am writing, future ES is down 10 points. Bear will win this battle!
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Year 1 trading self-reflection Part III
From October 2010 to January 2011 --- Lucky period
As a novice, usually one gets very lucky to win or succeed in the first few plays when doing things. For example, playing cards game, gambling, etc. I recalled I gained 1500 dollars in the first 3 visits to Atlantic City playing 21, then gave up all gains back to casino in the next month. This happens to my trading also.
From October 2010, I started serious trading. The first thing I did was to close all the positions I had. I wanted to have a brand new start - 50 percent off the initial portfolio.
My technical analysis learning is from a website called onlinetradingconcepts. I think this is a very good website for beginners. It talks about basics about technical indicator, Candlestick Pattern and Chart Patterns. From this website, I am amazed that there are so many indicators to give signal when to buy or when to exit. With technical analysis, a person is no longer a blinded man for trading. There are guidance, method, tools one can use.
I recall the first trade I had after learning the basics is to long AKAM. One day I notice that the MACD had a bullish crossover, which gave a buy signal. By holding AKAM for nearly one month, I had a 20 percent gain.
But in October 2010, my trading account did not grow. The reason I thought was I did not know what was a good setup, what kind of stocks I should trade, how to use different time frames for decision, etc. I noticed that even though I purchased stocks with signals like MACD bullish crossover, RSI overbought/oversold, stochastic crossover, a lot times stocks did not act like same way as the textbook said. Hence I think I need some teacher to teach me.
The best thing in October was that I found a lot of good trading blogs. They gave me bread and butt to learn about trading. To name some of my favoriate blogs at the beginning, they are afraidtotrade, Alpha Gobal Inverstor, art of trading, slopeofhope, samuraitrader. After following these traders for a while, I signed up the art of trading service in November.
Art of trading is maintained by Traderstewie, who is a very good trader and mentor. From Traderstewie, I learned a lot of new things for trading. Traderstewie sent out good long or short setup everyday. From these charts, I understand what kind of setup Traderstewie looked for. A lot of them were break out setup and support buy setup. Traderstewie was also showing how to use $NYMO as a tool to find out if market was in oversold or overbought zone. Hence I know there was market sentiment tool for market timing. To follow him, I signed up the stockcharts.com service to create my own charts, chart lists, scan tools.
I also trade earning playing in this period, and all of them were successful trades. LOL, that is what I call lucky. At each weekend, I check Samuraitrader's blog. He had a earning schedule for next weeks. I used the stocks in it for trading earning. Short ULTA before earning, long FNSR / LEN before earning. All turned to be winning trades. Only luck can explain this. Now I won't play earning any more.
The luckiest trade I had is the ARIA trade in January 2011. In the morning two days after I longed ARIA, I notice ARIA was up 25 percent in premarket due to some news like positive results for its study drug. I was totally not anticipating this thing to happen. Now ARIA is a 10 dollars stock instead of 5 dollar in January. Now I understand that the lucky event I encountered in January is an Episodic Pivot for ARIA. ARIA is the trend following stocks one should long.
As a novice, usually one gets very lucky to win or succeed in the first few plays when doing things. For example, playing cards game, gambling, etc. I recalled I gained 1500 dollars in the first 3 visits to Atlantic City playing 21, then gave up all gains back to casino in the next month. This happens to my trading also.
From October 2010, I started serious trading. The first thing I did was to close all the positions I had. I wanted to have a brand new start - 50 percent off the initial portfolio.
My technical analysis learning is from a website called onlinetradingconcepts. I think this is a very good website for beginners. It talks about basics about technical indicator, Candlestick Pattern and Chart Patterns. From this website, I am amazed that there are so many indicators to give signal when to buy or when to exit. With technical analysis, a person is no longer a blinded man for trading. There are guidance, method, tools one can use.
I recall the first trade I had after learning the basics is to long AKAM. One day I notice that the MACD had a bullish crossover, which gave a buy signal. By holding AKAM for nearly one month, I had a 20 percent gain.
But in October 2010, my trading account did not grow. The reason I thought was I did not know what was a good setup, what kind of stocks I should trade, how to use different time frames for decision, etc. I noticed that even though I purchased stocks with signals like MACD bullish crossover, RSI overbought/oversold, stochastic crossover, a lot times stocks did not act like same way as the textbook said. Hence I think I need some teacher to teach me.
The best thing in October was that I found a lot of good trading blogs. They gave me bread and butt to learn about trading. To name some of my favoriate blogs at the beginning, they are afraidtotrade, Alpha Gobal Inverstor, art of trading, slopeofhope, samuraitrader. After following these traders for a while, I signed up the art of trading service in November.
Art of trading is maintained by Traderstewie, who is a very good trader and mentor. From Traderstewie, I learned a lot of new things for trading. Traderstewie sent out good long or short setup everyday. From these charts, I understand what kind of setup Traderstewie looked for. A lot of them were break out setup and support buy setup. Traderstewie was also showing how to use $NYMO as a tool to find out if market was in oversold or overbought zone. Hence I know there was market sentiment tool for market timing. To follow him, I signed up the stockcharts.com service to create my own charts, chart lists, scan tools.
I also trade earning playing in this period, and all of them were successful trades. LOL, that is what I call lucky. At each weekend, I check Samuraitrader's blog. He had a earning schedule for next weeks. I used the stocks in it for trading earning. Short ULTA before earning, long FNSR / LEN before earning. All turned to be winning trades. Only luck can explain this. Now I won't play earning any more.
The luckiest trade I had is the ARIA trade in January 2011. In the morning two days after I longed ARIA, I notice ARIA was up 25 percent in premarket due to some news like positive results for its study drug. I was totally not anticipating this thing to happen. Now ARIA is a 10 dollars stock instead of 5 dollar in January. Now I understand that the lucky event I encountered in January is an Episodic Pivot for ARIA. ARIA is the trend following stocks one should long.
Reflection on two recent TNA trades
In summary, use 60 minutes MACD crossover to give entry/exit for TNA. Another important thing: this method works best in the range. Do not use it in the trending environment.
Look at Case 1 and Case 2 for difference. In Case 1, 10/31 closed at the low, then gap down next day. While in case 2, 11/09 closed at the low, then gap up next day with immediate sell off. This tells us it is not a good entry to long either on 10/31 or 11/09 close. Even if gap up next day in case 2, the lesson is to sell the strength at open as the price has not consolidated well enough so that dip buyer will take profit for the gap up.
The right strategy is to hold off to next day and wait MACD histogram about crossing 0 from below. In Case 1, I bought TNA on 10/31 close and lose 10 percent the next day morning. As I have strong mind that the market will bounce based on the timing model signal, I did not cut loss. Instead I added some new position on 11/01 close and the higher low point on 11/02. I admit this is very risky as I add to my losing position. Very lucky I saved my losing trade and earn money on 11/03. If the market is in a down trend, I will not add in the losing position.
In case 2, I took the lesson from the case 1. I did not buy on 11/09 close but wait for one more day. On 11/10, the market did not close low. Instead it bounce in the last hour to form a mini double bottom. I notice the MACD histogram is about turning to 0. This is a very good setup for me to go long.
Why buy TNA these days, instead of using TZA to short the high? Because I believe the rule for the past two weeks is buy in dip as the market is in range bounce of an up trend. But from next week on, the rule will change to short the bounce. Hopefully we can see TRUNAROUND TUESDAY.
炒股经验 zz from Mitbbs
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/33989839.html
发信人: opiumsnow (鸦片教授), 信区: Stock
标 题: 炒股经验
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 13 00:31:32 2011, 美东)
一直都认为不错的经验：
一。心态。想要炒好股票，必须要有良好的心态，要有赚而不喜、亏而不忧的正确态度，不管是赚还是亏，都要及时总结经验和教训并牢记操作过程中的得与失。什么是真正良好的心态呢?比如某只股票符合你的买点，但能涨多少你并不清楚，只能知道个大概。买后它跌了些，这时很多人都会觉得自己买错了，内心会有一种挫败感和失望感。其实没必要紧张，而要认真观察它运动的过程，你应该多看看它的形态，5日均线和10日均线处于什么形态，量和量比是多少，内外盘的量是外盘大还是内盘大，一般说来，外盘大于内盘表示主动性买进的人多于卖出的人。你还应注意在成交过程中每笔交易量的大小，这些观察对于第二天的走势很重要。另外要多多观察分时k线中的5、15、30、60分钟k线形态以及技术指标所处于何种状态，若感觉图形还好，第二天操作要关注它开盘10分钟到20分钟是外盘大还是内盘大，若外盘大于内盘，走势自然较好，同时你还得把注意力集中在现价和均价线上，如在涨升过程中感到涨升无力，你就应及时了结，如果卖出后股价又超出了你的卖出价，千万不要后悔，只要总结自己错在哪里，这就是心态。
二、涨幅和回落的关系。不管你的买入价是多少，它从当天的高点回落超过3%，就应该引起注意，回落了3%以上的个股，当天走势往往不会太好，很难再创新高。但这不是绝对的，是卖还是留，还得看个股的形态、量、量能线、量比、内外盘以及换手率，还要看它已经涨了几天。
三、错误的理念。不少投资者有一种错误的投资理念，那就是手里持有几只或十几只股票，却不知在这动荡的股市中要守好几只乃至十几只股票是非常困难的，更不要说赚钱了，可以这样说，大盘向好时，你手中的股票也许有几只能赚钱，但由于你的看盘经验和能力有限，如果突然变盘，你很难在短时间内了结手中的所有股票。其实你完全可以把有限的精力放在一两只股票上，对其进行细心观察，符合买点就买，不符合就等待机会，只要行情不是太坏，有很多值得投资的股票会像春笋一样冒出来。
四、止损。止损说起来很简单，但要做到恰到好处是很难的，一般来说止损要看处于什么样的市道、个股的形态、涨升了多少、自涨升以来量的总和、换手率、每天的内外盘变化情况以及移动均线和k线的距离。如果有经验，一般可控制在3%以内，即使错了也能找到其他处于涨升段的个股。值得指出的是，止损和投资人的经验和心态有密切的关系。
五、学会预测明天大盘基本走势。如果说个股是跳舞演员的话，大盘就是一个大舞厅，舞厅里如果没人气，那些跳舞演员也会跳得很不起劲，只有几个敬业的演员在那里热身，此时你应该坐在大厅里观看，看他们是怎样练习和热身的，当某个敬业的演员越练越起劲并有继续练下去的意思，你就应该为其鼓掌(买进)。因为毕竟不是正式演出，你还得防止他因为没观众人气而突然息场。
六、不要单相思。有的投资人买股票时常常会片面看待个股的涨跌，一只股票跌了几天后，他会认为这只股跌得差不多了而买进，却不知在形态不好时它横盘几天后还会下跌。炒股不要单方面认为它何时是底，而应学会顺势而为，找那些刚启动又有量的个股，只看量还不够，还要看形态和量放大后其涨幅是否同步。选股是一个较为系统的工作，它涉及到一个人的心态、看盘的经验、对个股形态的理解和把握，还有大盘所处的位置以及量和价的关系等等。有些投资人选好的股票没敢买，怕跌，错过了第一买点，心慌意乱匆忙去追高买入，却没注意此时的现价和均价的关系，结果追了高。有些股票买错了又不肯认错，任其下跌，最后被迫长线投资。
七、顺势而为。顺势而为的含意就是顺着市道而为之，比如大盘刚由强势转入弱势并破位的头几天，你别急着买入，因为你再有看盘的经验和选股的经验，在大盘刚转入弱势时，你买入的股票有可能当天上涨，第二天很有可能跳空补跌，那样会得不偿失。一个真正有经验的投资者是不会乱冒风险的，待大盘下跌的风险释放差不多了时，虽然并没完全走好，由于前几天的下跌释放基本到了一个小的阶段，这时有符合买点的个股，你可以出击一下，但一定要设好止损位。就像游击战那样，打得赢就打，打不赢就走，保存实力是投资的首要之道。
发信人: opiumsnow (鸦片教授), 信区: Stock
标 题: 炒股经验
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 13 00:31:32 2011, 美东)
一直都认为不错的经验：
一。心态。想要炒好股票，必须要有良好的心态，要有赚而不喜、亏而不忧的正确态度，不管是赚还是亏，都要及时总结经验和教训并牢记操作过程中的得与失。什么是真正良好的心态呢?比如某只股票符合你的买点，但能涨多少你并不清楚，只能知道个大概。买后它跌了些，这时很多人都会觉得自己买错了，内心会有一种挫败感和失望感。其实没必要紧张，而要认真观察它运动的过程，你应该多看看它的形态，5日均线和10日均线处于什么形态，量和量比是多少，内外盘的量是外盘大还是内盘大，一般说来，外盘大于内盘表示主动性买进的人多于卖出的人。你还应注意在成交过程中每笔交易量的大小，这些观察对于第二天的走势很重要。另外要多多观察分时k线中的5、15、30、60分钟k线形态以及技术指标所处于何种状态，若感觉图形还好，第二天操作要关注它开盘10分钟到20分钟是外盘大还是内盘大，若外盘大于内盘，走势自然较好，同时你还得把注意力集中在现价和均价线上，如在涨升过程中感到涨升无力，你就应及时了结，如果卖出后股价又超出了你的卖出价，千万不要后悔，只要总结自己错在哪里，这就是心态。
二、涨幅和回落的关系。不管你的买入价是多少，它从当天的高点回落超过3%，就应该引起注意，回落了3%以上的个股，当天走势往往不会太好，很难再创新高。但这不是绝对的，是卖还是留，还得看个股的形态、量、量能线、量比、内外盘以及换手率，还要看它已经涨了几天。
三、错误的理念。不少投资者有一种错误的投资理念，那就是手里持有几只或十几只股票，却不知在这动荡的股市中要守好几只乃至十几只股票是非常困难的，更不要说赚钱了，可以这样说，大盘向好时，你手中的股票也许有几只能赚钱，但由于你的看盘经验和能力有限，如果突然变盘，你很难在短时间内了结手中的所有股票。其实你完全可以把有限的精力放在一两只股票上，对其进行细心观察，符合买点就买，不符合就等待机会，只要行情不是太坏，有很多值得投资的股票会像春笋一样冒出来。
四、止损。止损说起来很简单，但要做到恰到好处是很难的，一般来说止损要看处于什么样的市道、个股的形态、涨升了多少、自涨升以来量的总和、换手率、每天的内外盘变化情况以及移动均线和k线的距离。如果有经验，一般可控制在3%以内，即使错了也能找到其他处于涨升段的个股。值得指出的是，止损和投资人的经验和心态有密切的关系。
五、学会预测明天大盘基本走势。如果说个股是跳舞演员的话，大盘就是一个大舞厅，舞厅里如果没人气，那些跳舞演员也会跳得很不起劲，只有几个敬业的演员在那里热身，此时你应该坐在大厅里观看，看他们是怎样练习和热身的，当某个敬业的演员越练越起劲并有继续练下去的意思，你就应该为其鼓掌(买进)。因为毕竟不是正式演出，你还得防止他因为没观众人气而突然息场。
六、不要单相思。有的投资人买股票时常常会片面看待个股的涨跌，一只股票跌了几天后，他会认为这只股跌得差不多了而买进，却不知在形态不好时它横盘几天后还会下跌。炒股不要单方面认为它何时是底，而应学会顺势而为，找那些刚启动又有量的个股，只看量还不够，还要看形态和量放大后其涨幅是否同步。选股是一个较为系统的工作，它涉及到一个人的心态、看盘的经验、对个股形态的理解和把握，还有大盘所处的位置以及量和价的关系等等。有些投资人选好的股票没敢买，怕跌，错过了第一买点，心慌意乱匆忙去追高买入，却没注意此时的现价和均价的关系，结果追了高。有些股票买错了又不肯认错，任其下跌，最后被迫长线投资。
七、顺势而为。顺势而为的含意就是顺着市道而为之，比如大盘刚由强势转入弱势并破位的头几天，你别急着买入，因为你再有看盘的经验和选股的经验，在大盘刚转入弱势时，你买入的股票有可能当天上涨，第二天很有可能跳空补跌，那样会得不偿失。一个真正有经验的投资者是不会乱冒风险的，待大盘下跌的风险释放差不多了时，虽然并没完全走好，由于前几天的下跌释放基本到了一个小的阶段，这时有符合买点的个股，你可以出击一下，但一定要设好止损位。就像游击战那样，打得赢就打，打不赢就走，保存实力是投资的首要之道。
Saturday, November 12, 2011
“ORB” - opening range breakout/breakdown
From http://www.younggunstrading.com/2011/11/orb.html
It is a very good day trading setup - “ORB” or opening range breakout/breakdown. Some quotes from the author: This involves getting long a stock when it breaks above the opening range high (I use 15 minutes of price action for this level but you can use 30 min) or shorting when it breaks below the opening range low. In my opinion this trade offers some of the best risk/reward scenarios you will find on an intraday trading basis. Although I use 15 minutes to arrive at my price levels, in my experience the trade has better odds of success when the entry occurs between 10:00-11:00. This setup is ideal when the level is just below a key level on the daily chart as multiple time-frames align.
It is a very good day trading setup - “ORB” or opening range breakout/breakdown. Some quotes from the author: This involves getting long a stock when it breaks above the opening range high (I use 15 minutes of price action for this level but you can use 30 min) or shorting when it breaks below the opening range low. In my opinion this trade offers some of the best risk/reward scenarios you will find on an intraday trading basis. Although I use 15 minutes to arrive at my price levels, in my experience the trade has better odds of success when the entry occurs between 10:00-11:00. This setup is ideal when the level is just below a key level on the daily chart as multiple time-frames align.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Last chance to buy-in-dip before correction
Today market had a big gap up early morning then sold off immediately to 10:30Am. People who bought the low yesterday close took the profit in the morning. If I were one of them I would do it also. We have seen many times the big gap up being sold off in the past two weeks. A lot of bottom fisher still see the dip as a bargin. Hence SPX had a nice bounce and choppy ride up in the afternoon session. In my point of view, this is the last buy-in-dip opportunity before the big correction. Market can have a nice bounce tomorrow and next Monday. Italy or Greece are evil to drag the market down, but the market sentiment will temporarily push the market up to trap some new fish into the pool. As it is said, market wants to hurt most people hard. Whoever short the market on yesterday close wishing to have a bear follow through got burned. This is not an easy market to play.
I am wiling to take the risk to go long here. I bought some TNA after market and QCOR before close. QCOR had good earning in the past few days with strong upside momentum. If the market set up to go up, QCOR should do well also.
I am wiling to take the risk to go long here. I bought some TNA after market and QCOR before close. QCOR had good earning in the past few days with strong upside momentum. If the market set up to go up, QCOR should do well also.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
A very good site about Emini Trading
http://emini-watch.com/
A lot of good stuffs in this webiste, especially in the free stuff section. I am going to spend a lot of time digging this.
Timelysetup mentioned a Day Trading Plan Outline in his post, which is very interesting to read. The instrument he is using is the ES future. http://timelysetup.wordpress.com/2011/11/09/a-day-trading-plan-outline/#comments
A lot of good stuffs in this webiste, especially in the free stuff section. I am going to spend a lot of time digging this.
Timelysetup mentioned a Day Trading Plan Outline in his post, which is very interesting to read. The instrument he is using is the ES future. http://timelysetup.wordpress.com/2011/11/09/a-day-trading-plan-outline/#comments
Today market showed its true face
I have not traded yet for this week, as I said before I feel tired and confused about this volatile market. It goes up and down all by news. On this Monday and Tuesday, it is amazing that all the big drop in the morning were bought aggressively in the afternoon trading. Basically, the intraday chart for Monday and Tuesday looked identical. But today market showed its true action -- going down.
Today due to the news that Italy bond yield went above the critical level 7 percent, the US market had a big gap down in the morning from 1277 to 1250, then another round big sell off in the afternoon to 1229. I really do not like these kind of big overnight gap. If you were wrong about the direction, you got burned. Yesterday close I was thinking about shorting the market, but I was also afraid that market could have another gap up to 1300 then sell off. Hence I did not take the risk. I would rather want a good sleep even though this kind of trades can give big rewards.
This week I feel I am too cautious, not willing to take risk. Actually today's noon is a good timing to go short if I want to try. Anyway cash is a good position here.
Market went as I anticipate. It did test 200MA yesterday then sold off hard here. I am expecting the market will bounce around 1215 support then continue going up for the next 4 days to form a lower high (1260 zone). It will form a triangle wedge pattern. My timing model should give a sell signal on Tuesday close next week. If market go up from here to next Tuesday, I will all in to short this bounce. I think it should have good risk reward. In my point view, this rally from October is a bear market rally, which is leaded by beaten down stocks. It will fail eventually.
Today due to the news that Italy bond yield went above the critical level 7 percent, the US market had a big gap down in the morning from 1277 to 1250, then another round big sell off in the afternoon to 1229. I really do not like these kind of big overnight gap. If you were wrong about the direction, you got burned. Yesterday close I was thinking about shorting the market, but I was also afraid that market could have another gap up to 1300 then sell off. Hence I did not take the risk. I would rather want a good sleep even though this kind of trades can give big rewards.
This week I feel I am too cautious, not willing to take risk. Actually today's noon is a good timing to go short if I want to try. Anyway cash is a good position here.
Market went as I anticipate. It did test 200MA yesterday then sold off hard here. I am expecting the market will bounce around 1215 support then continue going up for the next 4 days to form a lower high (1260 zone). It will form a triangle wedge pattern. My timing model should give a sell signal on Tuesday close next week. If market go up from here to next Tuesday, I will all in to short this bounce. I think it should have good risk reward. In my point view, this rally from October is a bear market rally, which is leaded by beaten down stocks. It will fail eventually.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Cobra's Long-term Investment Strategy
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/a-simple-long-term-investment-strategy/
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s236230480]&disp=P
Nice post from Cobra always. Some key notes from it:
why choose Canada market instead of Europe or Japan or Emerging market, at least why not US?
Two reasons: First of all, if you invest ETF that follows foreign index, it’s always hedged against that country’s currency, so you have to take the currency change into consideration. Secondly, Canada basically is resource related market, which is heavily related to inflation. Can you image a world without inflation? So as long as there’s inflation, Canada market is guaranteed to rise. Just check the link I give you, see SPX, it broke below the year 2002 lows in 2009 while TSX is far above it. Why? You now understand, because it’s inflation. So I think stick to Canada market is a better choice.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s236230480]&disp=P
Nice post from Cobra always. Some key notes from it:
why choose Canada market instead of Europe or Japan or Emerging market, at least why not US?
Two reasons: First of all, if you invest ETF that follows foreign index, it’s always hedged against that country’s currency, so you have to take the currency change into consideration. Secondly, Canada basically is resource related market, which is heavily related to inflation. Can you image a world without inflation? So as long as there’s inflation, Canada market is guaranteed to rise. Just check the link I give you, see SPX, it broke below the year 2002 lows in 2009 while TSX is far above it. Why? You now understand, because it’s inflation. So I think stick to Canada market is a better choice.
Year 1 trading self-reflection Part II
I started serious trading from October 2010. The reason is that at that time, my trading account lost 50 percent of its initial value. I felt that I needed to learn in order to recover from the big loss. Luckily I recovered all the loss three months later due to the bull run from Novermber 2010 to January 2011.
In the neolithic period of my trading, I have no knowledge for trading. I did not know what was moving average, what was support and resistance, etc. I should say I was very lazy at that time, wishing some guru giving me some good stcck picks, then I can earn money. I traded stocks mentioned by friends or some people at Mitbbs, no knowing why and when to exit.
I made 11 trades from November 2009 to October 2010, but losing 50 percent my trading account. 10 out of 11 are penny stocks whose price is less than 10. My biggest loss is AMNP trade, which I lost 92 percent. All these are big lessons to me. They triggered me to build trading weapons.
In the neolithic period of my trading, I have no knowledge for trading. I did not know what was moving average, what was support and resistance, etc. I should say I was very lazy at that time, wishing some guru giving me some good stcck picks, then I can earn money. I traded stocks mentioned by friends or some people at Mitbbs, no knowing why and when to exit.
I made 11 trades from November 2009 to October 2010, but losing 50 percent my trading account. 10 out of 11 are penny stocks whose price is less than 10. My biggest loss is AMNP trade, which I lost 92 percent. All these are big lessons to me. They triggered me to build trading weapons.
Friday, November 4, 2011
byebye了诸位（2013再见）zz from mitbbs
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/33963675.html
发信人: hatwin (傻就一个字), 信区: Stock
标 题: byebye了诸位（2013再见）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 2 17:05:29 2011, 美东)
这天终于来了。呵呵
觉得是个时候歇歇了。退出股市这个想法由来已久，主要原因有两个：
第一，股市太不稳定了，这种不稳定随着帐户的增大越来越难以忍受了。
第二，股市里赚的钱是其他人亏的，谁亏的呢？恐怕无法知道，但是肯定是股市里的人
出的。因为公司每个季度的报表里没有显示给股市出过这个钱。大资金的庄家从图形上
以及各个股市手段，包括nX ETF, weekly option等等，可以看出越来越抠门了。大概
是大肥鱼越来越少，小鱼们的肉也越来越难得到。为了自己的利益，变得贪婪吝啬大概
是难以避免的了。像我这种靠接老虎牙缝的碎肉的人也很难得到点儿整肉了。
说句实话，股市并没有达到我的目标，现在退出完全是违背自己个人的意愿的，但是如
果说这些年从股市中学到一点的话，那就是个人的意愿在股市里完全没有任何意义。今
年7，8月份的图形走势彻底打消了我想达到目标以后再退出的念头。现在退出完全是执
行，制定的吃ER波的计划。现在计划已经基本达成。未来还是老话，股市不可预测。请
大家也不要纠结在预测对错上面，劳心劳神，不值得。
总结一下吧，我这个人的炒股生涯应该是很典型的。
我读书的时候第一次炒股，大概是始于2004年，那个时候完全是消息，新闻炒股法，每
天看信息，希望找到最快的得到消息的途径。上网，跟大牛，买卖完全是靠想。每时每
刻都盯在电脑前，周末度日如年，不买卖的时候就是幻想着什么时候赚大钱，脑子里都
是什么时候大捞一笔。结果炒了1年多，终于在贪婪的幻想指导下，投入的钱全部亏光
。买的股票被摘牌了。由于是学生，彻底歇菜了，可以安心学习毕业了。
第二次开始炒股是2007年毕业后跟随老婆的阶段，那个时候工作还没有着落，而且老婆
的公司恰好就是股票交易的公司，所有员工就是靠炒股票生活。我还记得第一次去她们
那里转悠，看着电脑屏幕刷刷刷的一条交易一条交易的，现在看来应该有相当的一部分
是高频交易吧。那些交易员其实什么都不做，就是看着电脑自动交易。她们的作用在于
monitor个个strategy的效果，如果发现亏损的strategy，及时的终止并从交易系统中
remove掉。她们公司待遇极好，每天饭菜饮料都是免费的，都是饭店送菜上门，隔一段
时间就发各种东西，连扫地的都有份，我们家曾经的电视就是她们公司发的。虽然我老
婆只在这家公司工作了几个月，这次经历对我而言是个极大的震撼，原来股市赚钱不是
看消息，就是买卖双方，没其他人什么事儿。然后才真正促使我走上TA路线，我的前几
本书都是老婆公司借来看的。那个时候对技术的追求真的是如痴如狂，加上mitbbs上恰
好是傻帮技术探讨非常流行的年代。呵呵，结果是拿着老婆的工资，按自己的技术炒股
，把曾经学生时期亏得钱都赚回来了。根本不看消息，完全是TA说的算，虽然本金很少
，但回报丰厚，骄傲的不得了，非常喜欢炫耀，NB烘烘的自认为牛的不得了。对自己的
技术水平那是傲呀，只恨资金少否则早超过巴菲特了。哈哈。结果是2008年破产了，由
于当时自己也工作了，不但把老婆的钱，自己1年多的工资亏进去了，还把借信用卡的
钱都搭进去了。结果当然不敢和老婆说，股票也不能炒了，每月发工资还要还债的。
过了相当的一段时间，才敢面对现实总结经验，结论是走技术路线是对的，但是心理上
没有进步，根本摆脱不了情绪和幻想的掌控。图形上的警告到了大脑就忽略了，贪心恐
惧没有得到控制，再好的技术都没有任何用。整天着急赚钱还是死路一条。
第三次开始炒股，从做软件交易开始，经过自己的总结发现技术没有问题，问题出在自
己身上，因此产生了软件交易的想法，这样可以就图论图的操作，而不是加上个人想法
，情绪。在老婆的帮助下，完成的很粗的版本，开始测试。测试了几个月，因为根本没
钱炒股票，也只能测试。呵呵
真正开始实战炒股票始于2008年12月，到2009年2月的时候以前亏得都赚回来了。由于
曾经炒股的经历，我知道个人的想法都是没有意义的，炫耀更是没有意义。那个时候已
经变得平静了，不再每天想着未来赚大钱什么的了，本来就是在股市中交易而已，只要
坐正确的事儿，结果自然来。根本没有幻想的存在必要。由于心情的平静，后来就开始
手动交易了。再过一段时间，虽然本意上已经没有炫耀的心理了，但是还是在赚到第一
个100万的时候在本版发了个BSO帖子，当然注明是最后一次。因为股市里面个人真的不
重要，凡是认为自己对的，自己可以预测股市的都不会走得太远。
再过一段时间，发现炒股票真的没有必要天天看，庄家的动量是不可抗衡的，没有必要
天天盯着，股票自然而然要达到自己的目标。然后开始中长线，直到2011年，也就是今
年，我最长的position hold超过两年，赚的钱是所有交易里最多的。最近几个月由于
市场大幅度的变动，也作了些swing trade。现在一切终于可以尘埃落定一段时间了。
我的帐户其始于swing trade,经历过day trade的试验，day trade真的是操卖白粉的心
，赚卖白菜的钱，加上曾经看过人家电脑day trading，散户那里是竞争对手。最后放
弃了。经历过long term investment，最后还是做了一些swing trades来结束我现在这
次炒股经历。
最后，几个深深改变我的经验：
1. 股市不可预测，因此万万不能靠预测赚钱。
2. 股市的钱来自于买卖双方，一方赚一方亏。一笔交易最终大资金方赚钱。散户只能
靠TA捕捉庄家的行为来制定自己的操作。其他全是忽悠，不论看起来，听起来多么真实
，可靠。
3. 长期投资TA不能有效把握，因为价格是量的推动，没有交易，没有价格变化，长期
量没有办法掌控，趋势不可能被TA掌握。
4. 坚持好的习惯，就是操作制定在买卖之前，包括：什么条件买，什么条件割肉，什
么条件卖都要在真正交易之前制定好。交易以后，不要预测，执行自己的操作就好了。
否则永远没有办法控制自己的贪心，恐惧和幻想。他们才真的是庄家的伙伴。我们一定
要摆脱每当要交易就开始想象这个坏习惯。没有position，就坐立不安的习惯也要争取
摆脱。总的来说就是股票赚钱要靠操作，心里上要有耐心和平静。
好了，就这么多吧。我2013年中的某个时间再来炒股。我将不再回帖了。咱们2013年再
见。
发信人: hatwin (傻就一个字), 信区: Stock
标 题: byebye了诸位（2013再见）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 2 17:05:29 2011, 美东)
这天终于来了。呵呵
觉得是个时候歇歇了。退出股市这个想法由来已久，主要原因有两个：
第一，股市太不稳定了，这种不稳定随着帐户的增大越来越难以忍受了。
第二，股市里赚的钱是其他人亏的，谁亏的呢？恐怕无法知道，但是肯定是股市里的人
出的。因为公司每个季度的报表里没有显示给股市出过这个钱。大资金的庄家从图形上
以及各个股市手段，包括nX ETF, weekly option等等，可以看出越来越抠门了。大概
是大肥鱼越来越少，小鱼们的肉也越来越难得到。为了自己的利益，变得贪婪吝啬大概
是难以避免的了。像我这种靠接老虎牙缝的碎肉的人也很难得到点儿整肉了。
说句实话，股市并没有达到我的目标，现在退出完全是违背自己个人的意愿的，但是如
果说这些年从股市中学到一点的话，那就是个人的意愿在股市里完全没有任何意义。今
年7，8月份的图形走势彻底打消了我想达到目标以后再退出的念头。现在退出完全是执
行，制定的吃ER波的计划。现在计划已经基本达成。未来还是老话，股市不可预测。请
大家也不要纠结在预测对错上面，劳心劳神，不值得。
总结一下吧，我这个人的炒股生涯应该是很典型的。
我读书的时候第一次炒股，大概是始于2004年，那个时候完全是消息，新闻炒股法，每
天看信息，希望找到最快的得到消息的途径。上网，跟大牛，买卖完全是靠想。每时每
刻都盯在电脑前，周末度日如年，不买卖的时候就是幻想着什么时候赚大钱，脑子里都
是什么时候大捞一笔。结果炒了1年多，终于在贪婪的幻想指导下，投入的钱全部亏光
。买的股票被摘牌了。由于是学生，彻底歇菜了，可以安心学习毕业了。
第二次开始炒股是2007年毕业后跟随老婆的阶段，那个时候工作还没有着落，而且老婆
的公司恰好就是股票交易的公司，所有员工就是靠炒股票生活。我还记得第一次去她们
那里转悠，看着电脑屏幕刷刷刷的一条交易一条交易的，现在看来应该有相当的一部分
是高频交易吧。那些交易员其实什么都不做，就是看着电脑自动交易。她们的作用在于
monitor个个strategy的效果，如果发现亏损的strategy，及时的终止并从交易系统中
remove掉。她们公司待遇极好，每天饭菜饮料都是免费的，都是饭店送菜上门，隔一段
时间就发各种东西，连扫地的都有份，我们家曾经的电视就是她们公司发的。虽然我老
婆只在这家公司工作了几个月，这次经历对我而言是个极大的震撼，原来股市赚钱不是
看消息，就是买卖双方，没其他人什么事儿。然后才真正促使我走上TA路线，我的前几
本书都是老婆公司借来看的。那个时候对技术的追求真的是如痴如狂，加上mitbbs上恰
好是傻帮技术探讨非常流行的年代。呵呵，结果是拿着老婆的工资，按自己的技术炒股
，把曾经学生时期亏得钱都赚回来了。根本不看消息，完全是TA说的算，虽然本金很少
，但回报丰厚，骄傲的不得了，非常喜欢炫耀，NB烘烘的自认为牛的不得了。对自己的
技术水平那是傲呀，只恨资金少否则早超过巴菲特了。哈哈。结果是2008年破产了，由
于当时自己也工作了，不但把老婆的钱，自己1年多的工资亏进去了，还把借信用卡的
钱都搭进去了。结果当然不敢和老婆说，股票也不能炒了，每月发工资还要还债的。
过了相当的一段时间，才敢面对现实总结经验，结论是走技术路线是对的，但是心理上
没有进步，根本摆脱不了情绪和幻想的掌控。图形上的警告到了大脑就忽略了，贪心恐
惧没有得到控制，再好的技术都没有任何用。整天着急赚钱还是死路一条。
第三次开始炒股，从做软件交易开始，经过自己的总结发现技术没有问题，问题出在自
己身上，因此产生了软件交易的想法，这样可以就图论图的操作，而不是加上个人想法
，情绪。在老婆的帮助下，完成的很粗的版本，开始测试。测试了几个月，因为根本没
钱炒股票，也只能测试。呵呵
真正开始实战炒股票始于2008年12月，到2009年2月的时候以前亏得都赚回来了。由于
曾经炒股的经历，我知道个人的想法都是没有意义的，炫耀更是没有意义。那个时候已
经变得平静了，不再每天想着未来赚大钱什么的了，本来就是在股市中交易而已，只要
坐正确的事儿，结果自然来。根本没有幻想的存在必要。由于心情的平静，后来就开始
手动交易了。再过一段时间，虽然本意上已经没有炫耀的心理了，但是还是在赚到第一
个100万的时候在本版发了个BSO帖子，当然注明是最后一次。因为股市里面个人真的不
重要，凡是认为自己对的，自己可以预测股市的都不会走得太远。
再过一段时间，发现炒股票真的没有必要天天看，庄家的动量是不可抗衡的，没有必要
天天盯着，股票自然而然要达到自己的目标。然后开始中长线，直到2011年，也就是今
年，我最长的position hold超过两年，赚的钱是所有交易里最多的。最近几个月由于
市场大幅度的变动，也作了些swing trade。现在一切终于可以尘埃落定一段时间了。
我的帐户其始于swing trade,经历过day trade的试验，day trade真的是操卖白粉的心
，赚卖白菜的钱，加上曾经看过人家电脑day trading，散户那里是竞争对手。最后放
弃了。经历过long term investment，最后还是做了一些swing trades来结束我现在这
次炒股经历。
最后，几个深深改变我的经验：
1. 股市不可预测，因此万万不能靠预测赚钱。
2. 股市的钱来自于买卖双方，一方赚一方亏。一笔交易最终大资金方赚钱。散户只能
靠TA捕捉庄家的行为来制定自己的操作。其他全是忽悠，不论看起来，听起来多么真实
，可靠。
3. 长期投资TA不能有效把握，因为价格是量的推动，没有交易，没有价格变化，长期
量没有办法掌控，趋势不可能被TA掌握。
4. 坚持好的习惯，就是操作制定在买卖之前，包括：什么条件买，什么条件割肉，什
么条件卖都要在真正交易之前制定好。交易以后，不要预测，执行自己的操作就好了。
否则永远没有办法控制自己的贪心，恐惧和幻想。他们才真的是庄家的伙伴。我们一定
要摆脱每当要交易就开始想象这个坏习惯。没有position，就坐立不安的习惯也要争取
摆脱。总的来说就是股票赚钱要靠操作，心里上要有耐心和平静。
好了，就这么多吧。我2013年中的某个时间再来炒股。我将不再回帖了。咱们2013年再
见。
Thursday, November 3, 2011
wild range day - lucky it is up as I want
LOL, wide market action today. This is all due to the Greece. Greece killed a plan for a referendum today. At midnight 3am, I think the rumor came out. Then ES was up 30 points from 1213 to 1242 when I wake up this morning. Yesterday night, I feel very upset and puzzled about the overnight action. I have all in TNA yesterday after market. I feel TNA should be up based on the 6/10 system. Now what a relieve for me!! I sold TNA at the open using the market strength. This trade bothered me a lot overnight. I wish I would not do this kind of trade any more.
The market sold off sharply from the open to 10AM. TNA dropped from 47.80 to 44.32 in just half an hour. Then it reversed to rally until the close to hit 49. I am all cash. I do not like to trade in this wield market. Stay sideline until I see better setup.
This time I trusted the timing model. From October, the only strategy for me is to buy the dip or break out trade, as I feel the market is in upper trend. It looks amazing to me that the system do not need to care about the news. The good or bad news just came out as the system indicates. I do not anticipate the Greece killing referendum. I just know the timing model says long, then I follow. I feel the underlying market breadth will anticipate future action including news.
The upside momentum of the market keeps weakening every day. So I am expecting market is going to form some kind of wedge pattern in the next few days. Maybe, go up to test 200ma on this Friday, sell off on early next week, then last round of buy-in-dip, finally market set up for a big bear drop similar to August action. Short term around 10 days, I am bullish. Intermediate term, I am bearish. At current stage, I feel we may not have a year end rally.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
The after market drop
At the time I am writing this, the future ES is down 16 points from today's close. All today's gain is wiped out at night. Now I feel it is very strange. What event trigger the night sell off? Am I going to see ES down another 30 points when I wake up tomorrow morning? I hope ES can find support at 1208 to remain in a range.
The volatility is too high and it is too dangerous to carry overnight position now. I feel I need to stop trading in this environment. It is too tricky for me. My timing model still remains in the positive territory, but the price just still keep dropping. I am still lean to the long side based on my timing model.
The 60 minutes 6EMA/10MA buy signal for TNA is triggered today. With the likely big gap down tomorrow, what will happen to this long TNA position?
The volatility is too high and it is too dangerous to carry overnight position now. I feel I need to stop trading in this environment. It is too tricky for me. My timing model still remains in the positive territory, but the price just still keep dropping. I am still lean to the long side based on my timing model.
The 60 minutes 6EMA/10MA buy signal for TNA is triggered today. With the likely big gap down tomorrow, what will happen to this long TNA position?
To my readers who request to share document
Today my blog suddenly have a huge than normal volume of visit. And I received many request to share rhete's market monitor document. First of all, thank you for all the readers who come to visit my blog. I notice that the cause is that Sid at stockbee mentioned my blog at timeline. Then I guess a lot of stockbee members came to visit. Thank you, thank you for visiting.
To the readers who requested to share my document for the market monitor, I cannot share it, because the methodology of the market monitor is the same as the Stockbee's. Stockbee is a paid membership site. As I learn market monitor from Stockbee, I feel I cannot put it for the public assess. If you want to create you own market monitor, you can always check stockbee's post at his public blog, then implement in your own fashion. For me, I use both TOS and stockcharts.com to do the MM scan, then record in my document. I also record MM scan on Russel 2000 stocks. That is all for my document.
The intention of this blog is to record my trading learning curve and document any good trading articles I have read. I did copy many people's articles (links), especially stockbee members', onto my blog. Hope people will not be offended by that. If yes, please drop me an email then I will remove.
To the readers who requested to share my document for the market monitor, I cannot share it, because the methodology of the market monitor is the same as the Stockbee's. Stockbee is a paid membership site. As I learn market monitor from Stockbee, I feel I cannot put it for the public assess. If you want to create you own market monitor, you can always check stockbee's post at his public blog, then implement in your own fashion. For me, I use both TOS and stockcharts.com to do the MM scan, then record in my document. I also record MM scan on Russel 2000 stocks. That is all for my document.
The intention of this blog is to record my trading learning curve and document any good trading articles I have read. I did copy many people's articles (links), especially stockbee members', onto my blog. Hope people will not be offended by that. If yes, please drop me an email then I will remove.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Big gap down day for the first day of November
Today is a very negative session with a big gap down early morning. When I wake up this morning, I saw the ES was down 24 points. Gosh, that is too much. Yes, this is a news driven market. The Greece issue and MF financial bankcruptcy gave the market big down momentum.
With the big gap down, a lot of dip buyer came in, which give the market a nice bounce from the gap low untill 10:30Pm. After that, the market is in a range from 1215 to 1235. This indicates the bull and bear fighting each other closely. No one wins in today's session. I did not except the market would sell off so hard. What a joke is that almost everyone is very optimistic on last Thursday about the coming bull market. Now just after 2 session, the market looks huge different.
I subscribed email from some online guru about the market. He said his timing model triggered sell signal today and he started to short the market. Well, I do not think so. Yes, today is a very negative session with around 1000 stocks down 4 percent plus. But given the accumulation on October, the market will not die out so easily. There should be another counter trend rally to retest maybe 200MA. I manipulated my timing model to forcast for the future session. I get a feeling that there is another opportunity to buy in dip. If we see continuing sell off, the timing model should give me sell signal in about 8 sessions. At that time, it is good to short the market.
The market may bounce no later than Thursday. I will buy if market drop to 1210. Let us see.
With the big gap down, a lot of dip buyer came in, which give the market a nice bounce from the gap low untill 10:30Pm. After that, the market is in a range from 1215 to 1235. This indicates the bull and bear fighting each other closely. No one wins in today's session. I did not except the market would sell off so hard. What a joke is that almost everyone is very optimistic on last Thursday about the coming bull market. Now just after 2 session, the market looks huge different.
I subscribed email from some online guru about the market. He said his timing model triggered sell signal today and he started to short the market. Well, I do not think so. Yes, today is a very negative session with around 1000 stocks down 4 percent plus. But given the accumulation on October, the market will not die out so easily. There should be another counter trend rally to retest maybe 200MA. I manipulated my timing model to forcast for the future session. I get a feeling that there is another opportunity to buy in dip. If we see continuing sell off, the timing model should give me sell signal in about 8 sessions. At that time, it is good to short the market.
The market may bounce no later than Thursday. I will buy if market drop to 1210. Let us see.
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