Thursday, November 17, 2011

Bears cheer

Lol, I am a happy bear now. Today the SPX index was down another 1.68 percent with a nice follow through. Technology leads the down momentum. It is very strange to me that the small cap was holding very well during these two days. If the small cap die, then the market will have a much quicker flush.

Some people like to avoid these kind of big crash and they do have methods or methodology to avoid the crash. But in my philosophy, why not to catch these kind of furious crash to make money. From this July, I witnessed the power of bear market and saw how quickly market could drop in a few days to wipe out previous snail-like gains. I think it is a very good environment to trade as long as the trader's method is momentum play. Faceincabs is my mentor to be a bear. Even though he does not know me and I have never contacted with him. I learned a lot a lot from his tweets and his blog during this bear market. My current philosophy is to earn big money in market crash instead of staying sideline to watch for fun.

Reflecting on my trades from Tuesday, I should say I only catched 50 percent of the drop. I did not anticipate how quick the drop is. I missed many good opportunities to add my shorts and closed some of my short positions too early. Moreover, I am impatient to enter initial short position a little bit early on Monday close. Based on my timing model, I should short right before Tuesday close. I was just afraid to miss the bear rally. There is still a lot a lot of room for me to improve. I need to polish my trend following skills.

Right now, I have closed all my short position. My trading plan is to open new short on any reflex bounce. Tomorrow I am inclined to the upside for the market. Because I see the divergence in SPY/IWM 10 minutes chart. I opened a small TNA long position after market. Hopefully I can see market up in the first half hour tomorrow.

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