In summary, use 60 minutes MACD crossover to give entry/exit for TNA. Another important thing: this method works best in the range. Do not use it in the trending environment.
Look at Case 1 and Case 2 for difference. In Case 1, 10/31 closed at the low, then gap down next day. While in case 2, 11/09 closed at the low, then gap up next day with immediate sell off. This tells us it is not a good entry to long either on 10/31 or 11/09 close. Even if gap up next day in case 2, the lesson is to sell the strength at open as the price has not consolidated well enough so that dip buyer will take profit for the gap up.
The right strategy is to hold off to next day and wait MACD histogram about crossing 0 from below. In Case 1, I bought TNA on 10/31 close and lose 10 percent the next day morning. As I have strong mind that the market will bounce based on the timing model signal, I did not cut loss. Instead I added some new position on 11/01 close and the higher low point on 11/02. I admit this is very risky as I add to my losing position. Very lucky I saved my losing trade and earn money on 11/03. If the market is in a down trend, I will not add in the losing position.
In case 2, I took the lesson from the case 1. I did not buy on 11/09 close but wait for one more day. On 11/10, the market did not close low. Instead it bounce in the last hour to form a mini double bottom. I notice the MACD histogram is about turning to 0. This is a very good setup for me to go long.
Why buy TNA these days, instead of using TZA to short the high? Because I believe the rule for the past two weeks is buy in dip as the market is in range bounce of an up trend. But from next week on, the rule will change to short the bounce. Hopefully we can see TRUNAROUND TUESDAY.
No comments:
Post a Comment