LOL, wide market action today. This is all due to the Greece. Greece killed a plan for a referendum today. At midnight 3am, I think the rumor came out. Then ES was up 30 points from 1213 to 1242 when I wake up this morning. Yesterday night, I feel very upset and puzzled about the overnight action. I have all in TNA yesterday after market. I feel TNA should be up based on the 6/10 system. Now what a relieve for me!! I sold TNA at the open using the market strength. This trade bothered me a lot overnight. I wish I would not do this kind of trade any more.
The market sold off sharply from the open to 10AM. TNA dropped from 47.80 to 44.32 in just half an hour. Then it reversed to rally until the close to hit 49. I am all cash. I do not like to trade in this wield market. Stay sideline until I see better setup.
This time I trusted the timing model. From October, the only strategy for me is to buy the dip or break out trade, as I feel the market is in upper trend. It looks amazing to me that the system do not need to care about the news. The good or bad news just came out as the system indicates. I do not anticipate the Greece killing referendum. I just know the timing model says long, then I follow. I feel the underlying market breadth will anticipate future action including news.
The upside momentum of the market keeps weakening every day. So I am expecting market is going to form some kind of wedge pattern in the next few days. Maybe, go up to test 200ma on this Friday, sell off on early next week, then last round of buy-in-dip, finally market set up for a big bear drop similar to August action. Short term around 10 days, I am bullish. Intermediate term, I am bearish. At current stage, I feel we may not have a year end rally.
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